Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1150 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

.DISC...WILL UPDATE ZONES PRIMARILY TO REMOVE ANY THIS MORNING
WORDING.  PREVIOUS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
WAS TO LOWER POPS IN SOUTHEAST ZONES TO CHANCE.

STLT PICTURES SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY SE PART OF
FCST AREA.  SO WAS RELUCTANT TO LOWER ANY MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY.

MAGLARAS

......................PREVIOUS DISCUSSION......................

.DISC...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING.  THIS IS THE START OF A DEVELOPING LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT
WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST US FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.  ON SUNDAY A
STRONG JET PUSHED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW...BEGINNING THE DEEPENING
PROCESS.  THIS ALSO TOUCHED OF AN MCS EVENT CURRENTLY OVER IA/IL/IN
AREA.  THERE IS ALSO A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS AREA.

.THIS MORNING...EXTRAPOLATION OF FIRST WEAK SHORTWAVE TAKES IT INTO
EASTERN NY BY NOON...A BIT BEFORE 00Z 500MB ETA VORTICITY FIELD.
THUS HAVE INCREASING CHANCE PROB OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE MORNING
HOURS.  WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND AN E-W ORIENTED LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN NY/PA BORDER MAY INDICATE
THE BEGINNINGS OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY WE MIGHT HAVE TO DEAL WITH
FROM LATE MORNING ON.  PLENTY OF INSTABILITY INDICATED BY TIME
HEIGHT PROFILES AS SEEN IN THETA-E FIELD.

.THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...SEVERE WEATHER PRODUCING SHORT WAVE OVER
IA/IL/IN MOVES THROUGH NY LATE TODAY OR EARLY THIS EVENING.  BOTH
GFS AND ETA HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON IT...ALTHOUGH GFS TAKES VORT MAX A
BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH.  AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP
INTO THE REGION AND STALL LATE TONIGHT.

IN SHORT...WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE...RIGHT REAR JET REGION...PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY...MOISTURE...SUBSTANTIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND
SURFACE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AT LEAST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION INTO THE
NIGHT.  LIMITING FACTOR IN SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE
CLOUD COVER.  FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL PROBABLY ONLY TEMPORARILY
STABILIZE ATMOSPHERE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AT BEST.  AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASES TO OVER 1.5 IN...COULD SEE SOME IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH.

.TUESDAY...WEAKER SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE AREA TO KEEP SHOWERS
GOING...LIKELY WORDING LOOKS GOOD.  HAVE NOT MADE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO
FORECAST FROM THIS POINT ON.

.EXTENDED...CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER WED/THU AS LONG WAVE TROUGH
KEEPS SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH...THEN FINALLY SOME DRYING ON
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...TOTAL PCPN VALUES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 3-4 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT WILL BE
SPREAD OUT OVER 3-4 DAYS.  THIS AMOUNT OF PCPN OVER A LONG PERIOD OF
TIME SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOOD PROBLEMS.
HOWEVER...WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR TIMES WHEN HEAVY PCPN MAY BE
CONCENTRATED INTO A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...OR FLASH FLOODING CAUSED
BY LOCALIZED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

.ALY...NONE.

ZAFF

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-220830-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
430 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.  THE
PRIMARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND DAMAGING
HAIL.  ALSO OF CONCERN IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED
AREAS...IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON.