Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION - UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
900 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003

.DISC...UPDATED ZONES TO DROP EVENING PORTION FCST.

GG

...................... PREVIOUS DISCUSSION .....................

.SHORT TERM...
M/U LVL VORT MAX ACRS THE WRN GT LKS IS AIDING IN DEEPENING A S/W
TROUGH. LW PRES ACRS THE ERN LAKES WL CONT TO DPN AND MOV NEWD.
CONVECTION WAS ASSOC WITH THIS FEAT ACRS SRN QUE AND LO. MN CONCERN
FOR LTR THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING IS THE POT FOR SM SVR WX. THE
POT IS MNLY FOR ISOLATED SVR CELLS AND THE THREAT WILL BE FROM WND.
FRZG LVL UP OVR 12K FROM THIS MRNG SNDG IS NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR
HAIL AND MNLY UNIDRECTIONAL WND PROFILE WL LD TO POT FOR STGHT LN
WNDS. INCREASING SHR ENVIRONMENT MAY BE TOO LATE FOR DVLPMNT OF ANY
SUPERCELLS ACRS THE RGN. FROM SPC...EXPECT A FEW SHORT LINES OF
STORMS TO FORM INVOF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS IN
THE PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AS FAR E AS ERN PA/NY THIS AFTERNOON.
IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS FROM CENTRAL AND WRN NY INTO NW
PA/NE OH...THEN VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THIS
AREA.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EVENTS WILL BE THE MAIN
SEVERE THREATS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT SPREADING EWD
AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT...DONT AGR WITH THE LARGE HAIL
SCENARIO AS AFORMENTIONED ABOVE AND SBCAPES ARE ONLY ARND 1000-1300
WITH CLDS MOVG INTO CWA MAX SS CUD BE LIMITED DURG THE AFTN AND
DESTBLZTN WUD BE DIMINISHED AS WE GET INTO THE LT AFTN HRS. SO WL
DOWNPLY THE POT SVR WX THREAT BUT NOT ELIMINATE IT ALL TOGTHR. WL
ISSUE A REMAINDER OF TDY/EVNG PTNS FOR THEZNS AND KP ENHANCE WRDG OF
POSS STG GTY WIND. ONCE THE THREAT PASSES LINGERING SHWRS ARE POSS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PD WITH DRIER AIR MOVG INTO THE CWA LT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY LKS DRY WITH INCRES SS WITH SLGHTLY ABV TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...RGN STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLS AND DRY AIR FOR
MUCH OF THE WK WITH NR RNML OR SLGHTLY ABV TEMSP INTO INDEPENDENCE
DAY THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR A DRY WEEK IS A WK CLD FRNT
SLDING SWD FROM CNDN ON THE 4TH THAT MAY BRNG A FEW CLDS ACRS THE
NRN ZNS WITH THE THREAT OF A SHWR OR TWO...BEST DYNMCS STAY N OF THE
RGN AND CHC OF SHWRS MAY BE SLGHT AT BEST ATTM SO WILL OPT TO KP THE
4TH RN FREE ACRS THE N...OTHER THAN THAT WL BE DRY FOR THE NXT WEEK.

.HYDROLOGY...ANY RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN BASIN-WIDE AVERAGES BELOW FLOOD
GUIDANCE.  THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL DRY DAYS WELL INTO THE COMING
WEEK.  NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

.ALY...NONE.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-290900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
306 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.