Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Albany, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1010 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

.DISC...CELLS AHEAD OF MCS ARE LIFTING N AND MERGING WITH MCS AS IT
MOVES E. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACRS PTNS OF THIS AREA ALRDY IN 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 PSBL. THIS WLD PUT AT LEAST A FEW
LCTNS ABV FFG...SO WL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUN FM HUDSON RVR
W. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA FM HPC.

----------------------------PREVIOUS AFD-----------------------------
.DISC...
INTENSE 500 LOW OVR GRT LAKES WITH DEEP TROF EXENDG FRM NRN PLAINS
TO LWR MISS VALLEY BACK THRU FCST AREA TO CANADIAN MARITIMES. DEEP
SFC LO NEAR ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER WITH SRLY 850 FLOW OF 40 TO 50KT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FNT.  THIS AM A LINE OF TSTMS FORMED ALONG THE
MARITIME CONVERGENCE ZN AND ADVANCED NORTH UP THE HUDSN VALLEY
WITH PCPN RATES OF OVER 1 INCH PER HR.

.SHORT TERM...
THE MODELS DIDNT PICK UP PRECIP JUST EAST OF THE HUDSON RVR IN
DUTCHESS CO...AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION THIS EVENG THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. THE SE FLOW HAS RAISED THE DEWPOINTS 7 DEGREES IN THE
MID HUDSON AND CAPITAL REGION TODAY. TSTM ACTIVITY IN NRN NJ
WAS JUST STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE SRN CATSKILLS AND HUDSON
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A 3PM TEMP OF 80 DEGREES AT
MONTGOMERY. WITH THE MOIST AIR CONTINUING TO FEED INTO THE
REGION HAVE GONE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HVY RAIN THIS EVENING. FOR OVERNIGHT
HAVE KEPT THE CATEGORICAL POPS AND CHC OF THUNDER. POP STAYS
CATEGORICAL SUNDAY AM...THEN HAVE LIKELY FROM ADIRONDACKS TO
SRN VERMONT AND A 50 PCT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH.

.MID TERM...
GFS HAS DRY TONGUE AT MID/UPPER LEVELS WORKING ITS WAY INTO REGION
SUNDAY PM/EVE WITH 700 WNDS FRM SW ALTHO LO LVL WNDS REMAIN MORE
WESTERLY. 850 RH VALUES DROP FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF FNT SUGGESTING
WE MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CLOUDS
AND PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVE BACK IN SUNDAY EVENING
AND PRETTY MUCH HANG IN OVER THE REGION THRU WED NITE. COLD AIR FROM
HUDSON BAY AREA PLUNGES DEEP INTO THE MIDWEST BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPR TROF AND SWEEPS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AND IT WILL GET PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AS THE WEEK
GOES ON.

.EXTENDED...
THE UPPER TROF TAKES ITS SWEET TIME EXITING OUR OF OUR AREA...WITH
ITS DAMP AND CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW HANGING AROUND THRU THURSDAY
NITE.  THE TROF FINALLY LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY MAKING WAY FOR A MORE
ZONAL FLOW BUT LOOKS LIKE SIGNIFICANT WARMING WON/T OCCUR TIL
PROBABLY SATURDAY...WHEN WITH A DRIER TRAJECTORY LOOKS LIKE THE
DREARY CLOUDS WILL FINALLY GO AWAY...AT LEAST FOR A DAY.

.HYDROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...1 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR ACRS WRN PTN OF AREA
AND ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMTS PSBL. FFG GDNC
GNRLY 2 TO 4 IN 12 HRS. HUDSON RVR W WL BE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WHERE CONVERGENCE ZONE AND MERGER OF CELLS OCCURRING.

.ALY...FLOOD WATCH ALL ZONES FM HUDSON RVR W THROUGH SUNDAY.

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>
084-VTZ013>015-280915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM
ALBANY WEST THROUGH 600 PM SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA WITH LOCALLY MORE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THOUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ACTIVATED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NEW
YORK...HAMILTON...SCHOHARIE...MONTGOMERY...ALBANY...GREENE...ULSTER
...SCHENECTADY...HERKIMER...SARATOGA...WARREN AND FULTON.

HWJIV