Tornado Warning 17, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
340 PM EST WED JUL 2 2003

REMNANTS OF BILL EVOLVED A BIT DIFFERENTLY THAN PAST GDNC SUGG...WTH
LESS RAIN OVR OUR AREA.  LLVL BNDRY IN NC AND SRN/SWRN VA PLAYED A
SGNFCNT ROLE...AS HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED IN ERN NC.  RADAR IN
TROPICAL Z-R OVERESTIMATED THE RAIN...AND WL BE RETURNED TO DEFAULT
Z-R LTR THIS AFTN...WTH CNVCTN IN CNTRL NC TRACKING TWD SE VA AND NE
NC.  AREA PROFILERS SHOW A WSHFT BNDRY THRU MIDLVLS FROM CLT TO RDU
TO RIC...WHCH IS PROVIDING SOME OF THE FRCG RESULTING IN THE CURRENT
CNVCTN IN CNTRL NC.  SOME BNDRY LYR WND CNVRGNC ALSO OVR NC.  UPR
SYSTEM STILL TRACKING STDLY E...SO CNVCTN SHUD TRACK INTO SE VA AND
NE NC THS EVE...BUT WL LKY BE WEAKENED.  SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS
PSBL IN CNVCTN.  PTCHS OF -RA CONT TO FORM WITHIN THE UPR
DEFORMATION ZONE...SO OCNL -RA MOST AREAS OVRNGT...BECOMING LESS
WDSPRD AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND AGN...CHCS FOR TSTMS SE VA AND NE NC.
FLOOD THREAT IN WATCH AREA HAS DIMINISHED...SO WATCH WL BE DROPPED.

MAIN CONCERN NOW BECOMES THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE CNTR OF THE SFC
LOW...AND THE TIMING.  DURG THE DAY THU...SOME OF THE MIDLVL DRYING
WL PROMOTE SOME THINNING AND BRKG OF THE CLOUD CVR...ESPCLY IN THE
AFTN...AND WTH THE MOISTURE IN PLC...PLUS THE ENHNCD LLVL CNVRGNCV ASSOC
WTH THE CNTR OF THE SFC LOW...CNVCTN WL FORM IN SRN VA AND NRN
NC...AND WL TRACK TO CSTL VA/MD.  LOCALIZED HVY RAIN IN TSTMS SUGG
THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TMRW...BUT THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD ENUF
FOR NEW FLOOD WATCH...BUT WORDING IN FCST WL SUGG LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.

CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXIT TMRW AFTN/EVE...AND DEEP DOWNSLOPE FLO TAKES
OVR FRI.  GDNC SUGG THERMALLY INDUCED SFC TROF OVR THE AREA FOR ISOLD
TSTMS FRI AFTN/EVE...BUT TOO ISOLD FOR MNTN IN FCST.  TEMPS RCHG
LWR/MID 90S WTH HEAT INDICES ARND 100 FOR THE 4TH OF JULY.

GDNC STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE A WK SFC BNDRY PTNLY TRACKING INTO THE
AREA SAT NGT THRU SUN AFTN...BUT UPR FLO VRY ZNL...AND UPR
CONFLUENCE STILL SEEMS QUITE WK TO SUPPORT A SFC BNDRY TRACKING FAR
ENUF S.  H8 TEMPS NOT FCSTS TO FALL MUCH EITHER. NOT ADDING RAIN CHANCES
DURG THE WEEKEND UNTIL EVOLUTION MORE APPARENT.

QUITE A SPECTRUM OF GDNC FOR MON THRU WED AS WELL...SO WTH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY...NO CHGS FOR THIS TIME PD EITHER.

ON CSTL WTRS...CURRENT WNDS IN NC WTRS AND SRN VA WTRS APPCHG
SCA...SO MINIMAL SCA WNDS PTNLY THIS EVENING IN NC AND SRN VA WTRS
FOR WNDS.  INCRSG WNDS OFF VA/NC WL KICK SEAS TO NR 5 FT...AGN
MINIMAL.

SBY 71 79 66 91 / 100 60 30 10
OXB 70 76 67 85 / 100 60 30 10
ECG 73 81 70 89 / 80 40 30 10
ORF 73 82 72 91 / 80 40 30 10
PHF 72 81 70 94 / 80 40 10 10
AKQ 72 80 69 94 / 80 40 10 10
RIC 71 81 69 93 / 80 40 10 10
FVX 69 81 67 94 / 80 40 10 10

.AKQ...
.MD...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY ATLC WTRS.
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY VA/NC BRDR TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT AND
CURRITUCK SOUND.
.VA...SMALL CRAFT ADVSY ATLC WTRS AND CHES BAY FROM SMITH PT TO CAPE
HENRY.

NS

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-021600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
540 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND NORTHAMPTON
COUNTY OF NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF BILL COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TG

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ081-087>098-030200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
424 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS TO COASTAL VIRGINIA THIS EVENING...THEN MOVE OFF THE
DELMARVA THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA THIS
EVENING.  LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL UP TO 2
INCHES...BUT A GENERAL HALF INCH TO INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY OVER
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.

HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA CAN EXPECT SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...AS AN
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE
CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF BILL...TRACK THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER THE
LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE THURSDAY WHEN THE CENTER OF THE
REMNANTS OF BILL TRACK NEAR THE DELMARVA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
IN ALL AREAS TOMORROW MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN.

EVEN THOUGH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED...LOCALIZED
FLOODING CAN OCCUR IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
RAINFALL OF 3 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN CAN CAUSE SIGNIFICANT PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT DRIVE THROUGH AREAS OF STANDING WATER IF THE
DEPTH IS UNKNOWN.

FOR FURTHER WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

NS