Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

.OVERVIEW...TROF ALOFT INVOF ERN CBRD WL GRDLY BE RPLCD BY BUILDING
RDG FM W OF MTNS BY MIDWEEK. RDG WL RMN STRNG ENUF TO BE CONTROL
INTO FRI...B4 NEXT CDFNT FM THE WNW ARRIVES SAT. RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
TROF INTO ERN STATES XPCTD BY LT WKND/ERY NEXT WK.

.SHORT TERM...CVRG OF ONGOING CNVTN ABT 10-20%...AND WL NEED ISLTD
CHC FOR ERY EVE. SHRAS/TSRAS LIKELY TO DSPT QUIKLY TWD SUNSET...LVG
MCLR FOR MUCH OF THE NGT. IT RMNS A STRUGGLE TO LWR DWPTS ACRS FA...
AND EVEN THO SUM NUDGING DN OF DWPTS XPCTD OVRNGT...WL RMN MOIST
ENUF IN LLVLS FOR PTCHY FG DVLPMNT AFT MDNGT. CAN WE TRUST A DRY
FCST TUE/WED? STRENGTHENING INVERSION IN MID LVLS AS RDG GRDLY
BUILDS INTO RGN SHUD PUT A CAP ON AFTN CNVTN. HWVR...THIS HAS BEEN
AN UNUSUALLY WET SUMMER...AND WUD NOT BE A SURPRISE FOR A CPL
SHRAS/TSRAS TO DVLP (ESP TUE AFTN - OVR HIER TERRAIN/INLAND FM
THE CST/BAY?).

.EXTENDED...TMG NEXT CDFNTL PASSAGE RMNG UNCERTAIN. XPCTG RDG TO
HANG ON LONG ENUF TO KP CNVTN AWAY THRU FRI (WE CAN ADD LO CHC POPS
IN LTR FCST PACKAGES IF NEC)...AS LLVL FLO TURNS TO SWLY DRCTN
THU/FRI. WL LMT CHCS FOR SHRAS/TSRAS TO SAT/SAT NGT MOST AREAS W/
FNTL BNDRY PRESSING THRU FA. DRYING CONDS XPCTD LT IN THE WKND...AND
FOR ERY NEXT WK.

.MARINE...NO SGFNT WX.

.AVIATION...ISLTD CNVTN THIS EVE OTRW VRBL CIGS GENLY 3-5KFT THRU
EVE HRS...THEN PSBL PTCHY FG LWRG VSBYS TO 1-3 MI LTR TNGT/ERY TUE.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...
SBY 62 83 62 87 / 20 10 10 10
OXB 66 80 67 82 / 20 10 10 10
WAL 66 82 67 86 / 20 10 10 10
FVX 63 85 64 89 / 20 10 10 10
RIC 65 84 65 88 / 20 10 10 10
PTB 65 85 65 89 / 20 10 10 10
AKQ 64 85 66 88 / 20 10 10 10
PHF 67 83 68 86 / 20 10 10 10
ORF 71 80 70 87 / 20 10 10 10
ECG 70 84 69 87 / 20 10 10 10

.AKQ...
.MD...NONE.
.VA...NONE.
.NC...NONE.

25

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-181600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

33

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND  STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

VAZ089-090-181730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1258 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...THUNDERSTORM CROSSING THE JAMES RIVER FROM AROUND WILLIAMSBURG TO
INTO SURRY COUNTY...

AT 1258 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WILLIAMSBURG...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR JAMESTOWN AT 105 PM EDT...HOG
ISLAND GAME REFUGE AT 110 PM EDT...SCOTLAND AT 120 PM EDT...CHIPPOKES
STATE PARK AT 125 PM EDT...ALLIANCE...AND...SURRY AT 130 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE BUSCH GARDENS...
ELBERON AND KINGS POINT.

EXPECT OCCASIONAL DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AND RAINFALL RATES OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&
LAT...LON 3728 7661 3735 7682 3708 7699 3699 7672

VAZ063-064-072-181745-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
110 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR KINGS DOMINION...

AT 110 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXIT 98 ALONG I 95...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR GUM TREE AT 120 PM
EDT...DAWN AT 135 PM EDT...HANOVER AT 145 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO
BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE ASHLAND...EXIT 104 ALONG I
95...MANGOHICK...MECHANICSVILLE AND STUDLEY.

EXPECT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&
LAT...LON 3799 7745 3787 7763 3760 7738 3775 7715

VAZ083-090-091-181800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
117 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST JAMES CITY COUNTY...

AT 117 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER EXIT 227 ALONG I 64...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR WARREN MILL...AND...CROAKER AT 135 PM
EDT...TOANO...AND...NORGE AT 140 PM EDT...LIGHTFOOT AT 155 PM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE
BARHAMSVILLE...EXIT 220 ALONG I 64...HOLDCROFT AND RUSTIC.

EXPECT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. WIND GUSTS TO
1/2 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&
LAT...LON 3754 7675 3754 7698 3725 7701 3725 7671

VAZ081-082-084-086-090-091-181900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
207 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS FROM GLOUCESTER COUNTY TO CHARLES CITY COUNTY...

AT 207 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON A LINE FROM GLOUCESTER COURTHOUSE TO 19 MILES WEST
OF TOANO...OR FROM GLOUCESTER COURTHOUSE TO CHARLES CITY...MOVING
SOUTH AT 5 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR GLOUCESTER COURTHOUSE
AROUND 225 PM EDT WILLIAMSBURG AROUND 300 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO
BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE MATHEWS...NEW POINT
COMFORT...NORGE AND QUEENS LAKE.

EXPECT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THESE STORM. WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&
LAT...LON 3733 7640 3723 7676 3721 7699 3712 7716
          3729 7721 3745 7666 3754 7628 3747 7622
          3733 7625

NCZ015>017-VAZ097-181900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
218 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE...

AT 218 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES NORTH OF SOUTH MILLS...OR ABOUT 5 MILES SOUTH
OF GREAT BRIDGE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE  WILL BE NEAR
SHARON...AND...LILLY AT 300 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED
BY THE STORMS INCLUDE CURRITUCK...GRANDY...KNOTTS ISLAND...MORGANS
CORNER...MOYOCK...NORTHWEST AND POINT HARBOR.

EXPECT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. WIND GUSTS TO
30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH
PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&
LAT...LON 3613 7587 3633 7602 3642 7620 3633 7636
          3647 7652 3671 7632 3661 7614 3656 7616
          3656 7593 3649 7589 3647 7600 3628 7585
          3601 7575

NCZ017-VAZ097-098-181930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
243 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2003

...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST
CHESAPEAKE...

AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF CURRITUCK...OR ABOUT 8
MILES SOUTH OF GREAT BRIDGE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR MUNDEN AT 310 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO
BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE BACK BAY...KNOTTS ISLAND...MOYOCK
AND NORTHWEST.

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&
LAT...LON 3672 7615 3659 7630 3637 7605 3655 7585