Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 PM EST SAT MAR 29 2003

MAR IS A VRY CHANGEABLE MONTH...AND WELL SEE THAT UNFOLD B4 THE
MONTH ENDS. SFC CDFNT JUST ABT E OF MTNS ATTM...AND WL BE CRSG THE FA
TNGT. FNT WL HANG JUST OFF THE CST SUN AS WV OF LOW PRES DVLPS NR THE
MDATLC CST. AT THE SAME TIME...COLDER AMS SETTLES ACRS RGN...AND
LEADS TO SHARP CONTRAST IN CONDS FM THIS AFTN TO SUN AFTN. W/ COLDER
AMS COMING IN...SUM CONCERN OVR WINTRY PCPN BY SUN AFTN/EVE...ESP FOR
AREAS OF HIER TERRAIN IN NW AND W AREAS OF FA. CLIMO STILL SUGGS THAT
THERE IS A CHC (ALBEIT LOW CONFIDENCE) FOR STEADY PD OF WINTRY PCPN
(FAVORING SN??). RMNG CHILLY SUN NGT THRU MON NGT...THEN TEMPS
MODERATING FOR THE REST OF THE WK AS LOW AMPLIFYING RDG MVS TO THE
ERN CONUS.

SHORT TERM: ATTN TURNING TO AREAS OF CNVTN DVLPMNT (MNLY ALG-E OF
I95). SUM CONCERN FOR ENHANCED WND GSTS AND LRG HAIL...WL CONT TO
MONITOR SITU. WL CONT TO HV SHRAS/TSRAS THRU MDNGT AS FNT ENTERS
AREA. LINGERING MSTR AFT MDNGT...W/ INSTABILITY ABT GONE...WL GO W/
RA LIKELY ALL AREAS. MDL SNDGS (BOTH ETA/GFS) SUGG TURNING COLDER
(ABV BNDRY LYR) DURG SUN. THESE SITUS USUALLY FAVOR HIER ELEVATIONS
FOR MIX W//CHGOVR TO SN WHL LWR ELEVATIONS (AND GENLY E OF I95) RMN
RA. FM SNDGS...ANY SUCH PSBL CHGOVR WUD BE BTWN 18 AND 21Z FOR W AND
NW AREAS OF FA AS TEMPS FALL INTO MID AND/OR UPR 30S AND FRZG LVLS
FALL TO ARND 2KFT. W/ LOW PRES PULLING AWAY TO THE ENE SUN NGT...WL
TAPER OFF/END PCPN FM W TO E. DECENT LLVL CAA SUN NGT AND MON...KPS
TEMPS WELL BLO SEASONAL NRMLS. SUM CONCERN FOR SUB-FRZG READINGS MON
NGT...HWVR...WAA CLDNS FM THE WNW BEGIN TO ARRIVE AND CUD PREVENT
MAX COOLING. SFC FNTL BNDRY BCMS DRAPED OVR RGN LT TUE/TUE NGT THEN
BEGINS TO PUSH NNE WED.

EXTENDED: APRS NICE STRETCH OF WX THU AND FRI...W/ MUCH WRMR TEMPS
ON SWLY WNDS. WL GO W/ HI TEMPS WELL ABV SEASONAL NRMLS. ?S ABT
ANOTHER FNT ENTERING THE AREA FM THE NW LT FRI INTO SAT...WL GIVE
IT MR TM FOR STUDY/BETTER CONSENSUS B4 ADDING ANY PCPN CHCS.

FCSTID = 25

SBY 45 45 33 46 / 80 80 70 10
OXB 45 45 34 46 / 80 80 70 10
ECG 51 51 35 50 / 80 80 70 10
ORF 49 49 36 49 / 80 80 70 10
PHF 49 49 34 49 / 80 80 70 10
AKQ 48 48 32 50 / 80 80 60 10
RIC 46 46 31 49 / 80 80 50 10
FVX 42 42 28 50 / 80 80 50 10

.AKQ...
.MD...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS FENWICK ISL TO CHINCOTEAGUE.
.NC...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS NC/VA BRDR TO CURRITUCK BCH LGT.
.VA...SCA ATLC CSTL WTRS CHINCOTEAGUE TO NC/VA BRDR AND AND VA PRTN
CHES BAY.

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-291600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
440 AM EST SAT MAR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

PROLONGED RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MAY CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE BANKFULL.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

33

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

NCZ013-014-VAZ092-093-096-292215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
431 PM EST SAT MAR 29 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA...

AT 431 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
HUNTERDALE TO 2 MILES WEST OF CHOWAN BEACH TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF
PROCTORS CORNER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH...
   AHOSKIE AND SEDLEY AROUND 435 PM
   FRANKLIN AND WINTON AROUND 440 PM
   BERLIN AND LEES MILL AROUND 445 PM
   COFIELD AND TUNIS AROUND 450 PM
   IVOR AND CARRSVILLE AROUND 455 PM
   EURE AND ELWOOD AROUND 500 PM

WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. EXPECT FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS. RAINFALL RATES OF
1/2 TO 3/4 INCH PER HOUR WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

25
&&
LAT...LON 3686 7701 3646 7695 3605 7705 3649 7663
          3691 7652 3730 7659

VAZ048-049-061-062-292230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
456 PM EST SAT MAR 29 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN VIRGINIA
PIEDMONT...

AT 5 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE CULPEPER
AREA...INTO LOUISA AND FLUVANNA COUNTIES. OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO...THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.

SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. STAY TUNED FOR ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS...SHOULD THE STORMS
INTENSIFY FURTHER.

REILLY