Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
335 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

OVERVIEW: VRY WRM/HUMID AIRMASS COMBINED WITH A COUPLE
OF FRNTS DROPPING INTO OR PUSHING THRU FA...WILL HELP
MAINTAIN CHCS FOR SHRAS/TSRAS FM THIS EVENG RIGHT THRU
FRI NGT.

SHORT TERM: SVR TSTM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR
VA/MD CNTIES...AS TSRAS NOW OCCURRING OVR SE VA AND
APPROACHING FM THE W.  WILL GO LIKELY POPS THRU THIS
EVENG FOR WATCH AREA CNTIES...AND HI CHC ACRS NE NC
CNTIES AS SHRAS/TSRAS PROGRESS EWRD INTO/ACRS FA.
CHC POPS EVERYWHERE AFTR MIDNGT.

FRNTL BNDRY WILL DROP INTO AT LEAST EXTRM NRN CNTIES
ON THU...THEN LIFT BACK N OF THE AREA BY FRI MORNG.
SCTD SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ANY TIME DURING
THU AND THU NGT...DUE TO COMBO OF PROXIMITY OF FRNTL
BNDRY/ANY LEFTOVR BNDRIES/VRY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.

COLD FRNT THEN PUSHES ACRS REGION FM W TO E DURING FRI
INTO SAT MORNG.  SCTD SHRAS/TSRAS EXPECTED AGAIN ESPLY
RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF FRNT FRI AFTN INTO FRI NGT.

EXTENDED: FRNT MOVES OFFSHR SAT MORNG WITH SOME DRIER
AIR/WK HI PRES MOVNG IN FOR SAT INTO SUN.  SCTD PCPN
POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS SHRTWV TROF SWINGS THRU.  HI PRES
RDG THEN BLDS OFF THE MID ATLC CST FOR TUE AND WED.
ISLTD AFTN TSRAS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS...BUT FOR NOW WILL
GO DRY.

FCSTID = 32

SBY 73 85 74 85 / 60 40 40 40
OXB 75 83 75 82 / 60 40 40 40
ECG 78 91 78 88 / 50 40 40 40
ORF 77 91 78 88 / 60 40 40 40
PHF 77 91 78 89 / 60 40 40 40
AKQ 74 92 75 87 / 60 40 40 40
RIC 74 91 76 87 / 60 40 40 40
FVX 73 90 74 87 / 60 40 40 40

.AKQ...
.MD...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 900 PM FOR MDZ021>025.
.NC...NONE.
.VA...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 900 PM FOR VAZ048-049-060>100.

GINGRICH

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-092200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1230 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM 90 TO 95 COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES FROM 105 TO 110 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON.  ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

32

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING
(LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

VAZ063-064-070>100-092030-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
142 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

AT 140 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE. THE
STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AROUND 15 MPH. THROUGH 4 PM...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE REGION. WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ALSO...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM. AS
THE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH AND HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR
GREATER.

HURLEY

MDZ021>025-VAZ048-049-060>100-100100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
225 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

THE WATCH INCLUDES ALL OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND SOUTHSIDE
VIRGINIA...ALONG WITH THE LOWER MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EASTERN
SHORE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...
WITH THE POTENTIAL THAT A FEW MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER...ALONG WITH HAIL 3/4 INCH IN DIAMETER OR
LARGER. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP...WITH RAINFALL
RATES BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WITHIN ONE HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

HURLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
0307 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0251 PM    NORFOLK INTERNATIONAL AIR VA   68 MPH TSTORM WIND
07/09/03   CITY OF NORFOLK                REPORTED BY ASOS

BH

VAZ048-049-060>071-079-080-092015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2003

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

AT 345 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER RADAR DETECTED NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN VIRGINIA...TOWARD CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. THE INITIAL AREA OF STORMS WAS FOUND FROM LOUISA TO PRINCE
EDWARD COUNTIES...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS OCCURRING WEST OF THAT
AREA. THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AROUND 40 MPH...AND WILL BE LIKELY
TO OCCUR OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES AND ANY POSSIBLE WARNINGS.