Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Wakefield, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
320 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

OVERVIEW: SCTD SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THIS
EVENG THRU MON EVENG...AS WK TROFINESS REMAINS OVR...THEN
SLOWLY MOVES ESE THRU FA.  UA RDGING/DWNSLPING WILL PROVIDE
MSTLY SNY AND HOT WX ON TUE.  THEN...CHCS FOR SHRAS/TSRAS
RETURN AGAIN FOR WED AFTN THRU FRI.

SHORT TERM: COUPLE OF TSRAS POPPING UP TO OUR W...SEEMED
TO BE HAVING A TOUGH TIME HOLDING TOGETHER AS THEY SLIDE
E THIS AFTN...DWNSLPING LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THIS.  IN ANY
EVENT...WILL STILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS TNGT (ESPLY FOR THIS
EVENG) ALL ZNS DUE TO COMBO OF INSTABILITY/WK TROF LAYING
IN VCNTY OF NRN/WRN AREAS.

TROF SLOWLY PROGRESSES ESE ACRS CWA DURING MON/MON NGT
POSSIBLY TRIGGERING SCTD SHRAS/TSRAS...ESPLY MON AFTN
INTO MON EVENG.  WILL GO HIER CHC SRN ZNS...WHERE DEEPEST
MOIST/BEST LIFT WILL SHIFT TWD...ESPLY FOR THE AFTN/EVENG.

UA RDG/DWNSLPING THEN TAKES OVR MON NGT THRU TUE NGT...WITH
HOT/MSTLY SNY CONDITIONS ON TUE.  MANY AREAS WILL REACH
MID 90S.

EXTENDED: ANOTHER FRNTL BNDRY WILL APPROACH FM THE N DURING
WED...WITH WK AREAS OF LO PRES MOVNG ALONG IT.  THE FRNT
WILL THEN LAY NR OUR EXTRM NRN ZNS WED NGT THRU THU NGT
WITH A COLD FRNT THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THRU FA FM W TO E
ON FRI.  THIS WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRAS/TSRAS FM WED
AFTN THRU FRI.  DRY/VRY WRM WX FOR SAT AND SUN.

FCSTID = 32

SBY 76 90 74 95 / 30 30 10 10
OXB 75 89 73 90 / 30 30 10 10
ECG 76 91 75 93 / 30 40 30 10
ORF 75 91 75 94 / 30 40 30 10
PHF 75 91 74 95 / 30 40 10 10
AKQ 74 91 73 95 / 30 40 10 10
RIC 74 91 73 95 / 40 30 10 10
FVX 72 91 71 94 / 40 30 10 10

.AKQ...
.MD...NONE.
.NC...SCA CURRITUCK SND.
.VA...NONE.

GINGRICH

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-061600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
530 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE...THE VIRGINIA LOWER EASTERN SHORE...AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA FROM RICHMOND NORTHWARD. IN ADDITION TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HEAT INDICES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REACH NEAR 100 TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

HEAT INDICES TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB BETWEEN 100 AND 105.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BROWN

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND  STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE
INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

VAZ048-049-061-062130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
440 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...

AT 435 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE
SOUTHWEST TO NEAR LYNCHBURG. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS LOUISA...FLUVANNA AND CUMBERLAND
COUNTIES BEFORE 530 PM. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH.

44

VAZ073-074-062130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
505 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS KING AND QUEEN COUNTY...

AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTH OF HENLEY FORK...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL REACH...BRUINGTON AND CROUCH AROUND
505 PM...MILLERS TAVERN AROUND 510 PM...HOWERTONS AROUND 520 PM...
UPRIGHT AROUND 525 PM...DUNNSVILLE AND BRAYS FORK AROUND 530 PM.

EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
WITH THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

44
&&
LAT...LON 3781 7712 3769 7696 3784 7676 3791 7682

VAZ049-061>063-069-062215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
525 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTH OF
CALEDONIA IN WESTERN GOOCHLAND COUNTY TO 3 MILES NORTH OF TRENTS
MILL AND 31 MILES WEST OF GUINEA MILLS IN CUMBERLAND COUNTY...MOVING
EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REACH...
   BYRD MILL AND TREVILIANS AROUND 525 PM
   LAKESIDE VILLAGE AND TRENTON MILLS AROUND 530 PM
   HADENSVILLE AND LOUISA AROUND 535 PM
   YANCEYVILLE AND LOUISA AIRPORT AROUND 540 PM
   CARTERSVILLE AND TRENTS MILL AROUND 545 PM
   ORCHID AND APPLE GROVE AROUND 550 PM

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

&&
LAT...LON 3758 7829 3775 7819 3787 7806 3794 7818
          3817 7828 3812 7785 3801 7769 3786 7773
          3786 7743 3759 7775 3733 7854

VAZ074-062200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
535 PM EDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS ESSEX COUNTY...

AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MILLERS TAVERN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORM WILL REACH...HOWERTONS AROUND 535 PM...BRAYS FORK
AND MOUNT LANDING AROUND 545 PM...DUNNSVILLE AND TAPPAHANNOCK AROUND
550 PM.

EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING
WITH THIS STORM OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES.

&&
LAT...LON 3787 7708 3774 7691 3788 7677 3796 7689

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