Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Wakefield, VA

000 
WGUS71 KAKQ 071204
FFSAKQ
VAC111-117-071235-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR  LUNENBURG
MECKLENBURG HAS EXPIRED AS OF 800 AM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN
THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. EVEN THOUGH STREAMS AND CREEKS WERE RECEDING...
SOME ROADWAYS STILL MAY BE COVERED WITH WATER. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED
TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$

MALOIT
&&
LAT...LON 3672 7857 3660 7839 3690 7807 3704 7829

000 
WGUS71 KAKQ 071206 CCA
FFSAKQ
VAC111-117-071235-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED TO CANCEL VICE EXPIRE WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
804 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WHICH WAS IN EFFECT FOR LUNENBURG AND 
MECKLENBURG COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELED AS OF 805 AM EDT...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN
THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. EVEN THOUGH STREAMS AND CREEKS WERE RECEDING...
SOME ROADWAYS STILL MAY BE COVERED WITH WATER. MOTORISTS ARE ADVISED
TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$

MALOIT
&&
LAT...LON 3672 7857 3660 7839 3690 7807 3704 7829

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
419 AM EDT THU AUG 7 2003

AFTER A BRIEF RESPITE...MORE RAIN IS ON THE WAY FOR THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO
AMPLIFY (ONCE AGAIN) AS A RESULT OF THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS/MS VLY. STLT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED JET
STREAK DROPPING INTO THE MID AND LOWER MS VLY.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MERIDIONAL FLOW...A
BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/ QS VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS NOTED
ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION AS WE REMAIN E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE
AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL DEEPEN THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...TAPPING THE GULF STREAM AND MAKING FOR OPTIMAL
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY AS PWAT INDICES CLIMB TO NEAR 2. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCHES AS THE MODELS SHOW BEST MOISTURE/THETA-E
ADVECTION (AND THUS QPF) TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. NEVERTHELESS WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON GULF STREAM CONVECTION LIFTING N ALONG THE
NC/VA COASTS...GIVEN THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE RAIN (HIGHER
EFFICIENCY/RAINFALL RATES).

FRIDAY...BOTH THE GFS/ETA SHOW A BREAK IN THE ACTION EARLY...THEN
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER DIVERGENCE AND ASSOCIATED LOW/MID LEVEL
LIFT BY AFTERNOON LIFTING FROM THE SOUTH. GFS AND ETA DIFFER AS TO
WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL BE (ALONG VA/NC COAST PER ETA...OVER NW VA
AND NRN WV PER THE GFS)...NEVERTHELESS GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE
TROUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BECOME
NUMEROUS OVER THE FCST AREA ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND...MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST...WHICH
MAINTAINS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS THE PATTERN SHOWS NO SIGNS OF CHANGING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ABNORMALLY MERIDIONAL UPPER FLOW
PATTERN CONTINUES WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF REGION. THE LATEST EXTENDED GFS RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW
SIGNS OF WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT BY MIDWEEK AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE/JET
STREAM LIFTS NORTH INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS/POPS...
SBY 84 71 83 71 / 50 60 50 60
OXB 81 71 81 74 / 50 60 50 60
WAL 84 71 82 72 / 50 60 50 60
FVX 80 68 85 69 / 60 60 50 60
RIC 82 70 84 71 / 60 60 50 60
PTB 82 71 86 71 / 60 60 50 60
AKQ 83 72 85 72 / 60 60 50 60
PHF 84 73 85 73 / 60 60 50 60
ORF 84 73 84 74 / 60 60 60 60
ECG 84 74 86 74 / 60 60 60 60

.AKQ...
.MD...NONE.
.VA...NONE.
.NC...NONE.

HURLEY

MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-049-060>100-071600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
538 AM EDT THU AUG 07 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING NEAR SMALL STREAMS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
WAKEFIELD, VA CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER
CASE): WEATHER.NOAA.GOV/AKQ.

HURLEY