Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
300 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION AND CONVECTION
CHANCES. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL DIG SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...THEN
SLOWLY BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY.

THE ENTIRE CWA IS IN THE RISK AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE EASTERN
HALF IN THE MODERATE RISK. COLD FRONT SITUATED VERY NEAR THE
MISSOURI RIVER...AND LOOKS TO TRACK SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE
DAY. DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CWA...AND THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE
PLENTY OF LIFT. SHOULD BE SEVERAL BOUNDARIES ALSO LEFT OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION TO AID WITH LIFT. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES AS GOOD SHEAR SETS UP DURING
THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET
SETTING UP JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL
JET SLIDING OVER THE DAKOTAS. BETTER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE
CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LIS AROUND -10 AND CAPES OF 3500-4500
J/KG OVER NEBRASKA...SO EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THAT
AREA...THEN PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
MODELS HINT AT THIS WITH CAPES INCREASING AND LIS BECOMING MORE
NEGATIVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN CWA DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL
STICK WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND LIKELY IN THE EAST
WITH A MENTION OF SEVERE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN GETS HUNG UP FROM THE EASTERN CWA DOWN
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH BEST
INSTABILITY AGAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...THEN PUSHING NORTHWARD
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT AS MUCH INSTABILITY AROUND ON
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TRY
AND HAVE SOME AFFECT. STILL SOME WEAK CAPE AND NEGATIVE LIS
THOUGH...SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE POP GOING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM TO EXTENDED STILL APPEARS TO BE POSSIBLY ACTIVE AS SFC
FRONT STALLS JUST TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CWA...WITH GOOD JET CORE
ALOFT. LONGWAVE 5H AND 7H TROFS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH EAST THROUGH
CWA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH VORTS EMBEDDED WITHIN FLOW. GIVEN STRENGTH
OF EAST COAST RIDGE DEVELOPING...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FRONT
LOCATED A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN PROGGED. GIVEN THAT 7H THETA-E
RIDGES STILL NOSE INTO ERN CWA...AND STILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOIST AROUND...HAVE UPPED TSRA CHCS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE CHC
CATEGORY...UP FROM SLGHT CHC. ALSO...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT MORE CLOUD
COVER...HAVE BACKPEDDLED TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...NOT MUCH ELSE FIDDLED WITH. BY
NEXT WEEKEND UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH WARMING TEMPS ALREADY NOTED IN FCST.

.ABR...NONE.

PARKIN/HINTZ

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-231015-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
545 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS
BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH WILL ALLOW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ABERDEEN TO REDFIELD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

PARKIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN, SD
1213 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0815 PM    1 E LEOLA                 SD   70 MPH WIND GUST
06/21/03   MCPHERSON

0945 PM    3 W NORTHVILLE            SD   .75 INCH HAIL
06/21/03   SPINK

0830 PM    HIGHMORE                  SD   WIND DAMAGE
06/21/03   HYDE                           500 GALLON FULL PROPANE
                                          TANK BLOWN DOWN

0930 PM    1 W HIGHMORE              SD   70 MPH WIND GUST
06/21/03   HYDE

0920 PM    15 S HARROLD              SD   .75 INCH HAIL
06/21/03   HUGHES

1015 PM    9 NNE ROCKHAM             SD   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/21/03   FAULK

NDM