Severe Thunderstorm Warning 164, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
235 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7PM...

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CWA AND SAGGING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 20-30MPH.
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AHEAD OF FRONT GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
HAVE BEEN SEVERE.  INSTABILITY WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIFT MECHANISMS HELPING TO FUEL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  18Z
SOUNDING SHOWS DOUBLED CAPE AND PW FROM 12Z.  LEADING INFLUENCE OF
COLD FRONT WAS IN VICINITY OF BALLOON TRAVEL DURING THE 18Z LAUNCH.

MODELS IN GOOD SHAPE FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD.  EXPECT UPPER
RIDGE TO REBUILD AND STABILIZE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIP TO BE SEASONAL.  FEW CHANGES TO MAJORITY OF GRIDS.
ADJUSTED WX AND POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THUNDER POTENTIAL THIS EVENING
WITH SOME CARRY OVER WEDNESDAY DUE TO WRAP AROUND FLOW.  MCNULTY

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT. THE PERIOD
STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...AND A RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER TO
THE NORTH THROUGH MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH THE RIDGE BACK A BIT TO THE WEST ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE BEST ENERGY REMAINING JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA. AT THE SURFACE...A VERY BROAD AND UNORGANIZED PATTERN SETS UP
WITH NO DEFINITE BOUNDARIES AROUND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHEN THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE AREA WILL
LEND THE MOST SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL
WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.  PARKIN

.ABR...NONE.

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-301030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
529 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS
BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ABERDEEN
TO PIERRE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HINTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN, SD
139 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 PM    7 SW MILLER               SD   .75 INCH HAIL
07/29/03   HAND

AP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN, SD
152 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0135 PM    1 S MILLER                SD   .75 INCH HAIL
07/29/03   HAND

0145 PM    3 N SAINT LAWRENCE        SD   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/29/03   HAND

AP