Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Aberdeen, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA HAS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE TO SET OFF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
MORE COMING IN FROM NORTH DAKOTA AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR THE EAST.

A BROAD UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS TROUGH DOES PUSH OFF A BIT TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY...ALLOWING THE HIGH TO BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
EXITING FRONT TONIGHT...THEN REMAINS DOMINANT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THAT TIME...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
DID NOT DO MUCH WITH THIS PERIOD WITH LIMITED TIME DUE TO CURRENT
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA AND MODELS STILL INDICATING A FAIRLY
MUDDLED PICTURE...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ON. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. DID NOT CHANGE CURRENT PRECIPITATION
FORECAST...AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
TO FIT WITH TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.ABR...NONE.

PARKIN

MNZ039-046-SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051-201030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
545 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL...
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AS WELL AS
BIG STONE AND TRAVERSE COUNTIES IN MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY MIDNIGHT AND
THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MOHR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
0200 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 AM    BRADLEY                   SD   0.75 IN HAIL
07/20/03   CLARK

GILLESPIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
0201 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0155 AM    CLARK                     SD   0.75 IN HAIL
07/20/03   CLARK

GILLESPIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
0420 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0136 AM    FRANKFORT                 SD   0.75 IN HAIL
07/20/03   SPINK

0315 AM    4 W CASTLEWOOD            SD   0.75 IN HAIL
07/20/03   HAMLIN

0343 AM    GARY                      MN   0.75 IN HAIL
07/20/03   NORMAN

0330 AM    SW CASTLEWOOD             SD   0.75 IN HAIL
07/20/03   HAMLIN

GILLESPIE