Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
250 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY ARE TEMPS AND COVERAGE OF PCPN OVER NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER N CONUS CONTINUES TO BRING
QUICK MOVING SHRTWVS ACROSS THE REGION. ONE NOW MOVING INTO E SD
WHILE THE NEXT ONE BEHIND IT IS OVER S MT AND N WY. MODELS IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW ETA THRU THE SHORT TERM.
WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR SAT AND
SUN.

FOR TONIGHT...WIDELY SCT STORMS EXPECTED AS WAVE MOVES EASTWARD INTO
THE DAKOTAS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES.
SVR WX POTENTIAL LOOKS MINIMAL...BUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NE WY AND NW SD. THOUGH SOME DRIER AIR HAS
MOVED INTO NE WY THIS AFT...STORMS THAT MOVE ACROSS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAINFALL...SO THE CONCERN FOR DRY LIGHTNING
WILL BE MINIMIZED. THEREFORE...FIRE WX WATCH FOR NE WY AND THE HILLS
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

TOMORROW WILL REMAIN WARM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IT
WILL BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES IN THE AFT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW SD.
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH NORTHERN ZONES AROUND 00Z AND WORK
ITS WAY SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. COMBINED WITH ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVING
THRU...THIS SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUN AND MON WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND LOW
HUMIDITIES. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SW CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO TEMPS WILL WARM UP AGAIN...WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 90S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

.UNR...NONE

ST