Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Rapid City, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY
150 PM MDT SUN JUN 02 2002

...THREAT OF SVR WX AGAIN TONIGHT...

UPR LVL LOW ACRS NRN ROCKIES...WITH BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT ACRS NRN
PLAINS. SFC TROF EXTENDS FROM ERN WY INTO ERN MT. MAIN CONCERN SVR
WX THREAT TONIGHT.

18Z RUC INDICATING MORE INSTABILITY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH MUCAPE
RISING TO 2000-2500 J/KG ACRS NERN WY. CAP HAS ERODED THIS AREA AND
CONVECTION ALREADY TAKING PLACE JUST W OF CWFA AS STRONG SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES.  LATEST PROGGED HODOGRAPHS FAVOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.
LCLS A BIT TOO HIGH TO SUPPORT MUCH TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT.
INSTABILITY AXIS THEN MOVES ACRS BLACK HILLS AND SWRN SD THIS EVE
WHERE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT. MOISTURE IS CERTAINLY IN PLACE
(52F DEWPOINT AT KCUT AT 19Z). CAPPING STILL QUITE STRONG ACROSS S
CNTRL BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT EXPECT STRONG FORCING TO OVERCOME.  LESS
INSTABILITY FOR NORTHERN ZONES...SO EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO OCCUR
GENERALLY SOUTH I-90.

AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACRS NRN PLAINS ON MON-TUE COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO AREA AND UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH THREAT OF STRONG
CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE.  UPR RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK
INTO REGION WED FOR BEGINNING OF WARMING TREND.

EXTENDED...DRY AND WARMER THRU THU...WITH SW FLOW RETURNING ON FRI.
STRONG UPR TROF WORKS ACRS NRN PLAINS FRI-SUN FOR COOLING TREND AND
UNSETTLED WX.  PROGGED STRENGTH OF TROF/COLD AIR QUITE IMPRESSIVE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT THEN AGAIN ITS SEVERAL DAYS OUT.

.UNR...SVR TSTM WATCH NERN WY.
JOHNSON

SDZ012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-WYZ054>058-021900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1100 AM MDT SUN JUN 2 2002

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...

.THREAT...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE HAIL LARGER THAN 3/4 INCH AND DOWNBURST WINDS GREATER THAN
60 MPH.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING AND IN THE WINNER AREA.

OTHER STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
&&

COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THIS OUTLOOK
ARE...TRIPP...SHANNON...LAWRENCE...PENNINGTON...CUSTER...FALL
RIVER...CROOK...CAMPBELL AND WESTON.

WCJIN-WYNE

HELGESON