Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 9, 2002, 5:05 PM MST for Pima County, Arizona. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 9, 2002, 5:05 PM MST (00:05 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 9, 2002, 5:45 PM MST
- In force
- 40 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Pima County, AZ
The radar
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 121 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 404 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -140 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2481 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -18 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 101 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
684 WUUS55 KTWC 100005 SVRTWC AZC019-100045- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 504 PM MST TUE JUL 9 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTH CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 545 PM MST * AT 458 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF VAYA CHIN...OR ABOUT 24 MILES NORTH OF SELLS...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH. DAMAGING WIND TO 60 MPH AND INTENSE RAINFALL IS LIKELY. MOTORISTS TRAVELING HIGHWAY 15 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 86 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STRONG CROSS WINDS AND SHOULD NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS THROUGH ROADWAY DIPS FILLED WITH RUNNING WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM MST TUESDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. LAT...LON 3213 11223 3216 11176 3233 11169 3246 11224
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 9, 11:45 AM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 11:45 AM MST, 5 hours 20 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...MESOSCALE UPDATE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1145 AM MST TUE JUL 9 2002 .SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL KEEP DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL STEER A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO...LEADING TO A DAILY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. .DISCUSSION...18Z SOUNDING JUST IN, AND AS EXPECTED, WE ARE FIGHTING A WEAK CAP AROUND 700MB. PRECIP WATERS ARE ALSO DOWN TO A MORE MANAGEABLE 1.36, AND MEAN E FLOW IS STILL AROUND 15KTS. WHILE THESE FACTORS MAY STILL SUPPORT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD EVENT OR TWO, IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR UNLESS WE SEE SOME ORGANIZATION ON THE TSTMS NOW JUST STARTING TO FIRE ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER. OF MUCH GREATER CONCERN NOW, THOUGH, IS THE INVERTED-V LOOK TO OUR SOUNDING. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A VERY BROAD CYCLONIC TURN OVER W TX/E NM WHICH IS HEADING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION. THE AVN DOESNT HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL, AND THE ETA IS A LITTLE TOO CONCENTRATED WITH IT. IF THIS STARTS TO FOCUS THE CONVECTION ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER, WE COULD END UP WITH INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINES AND FINALLY AN MCS AS IT PROPAGATES TOWARD THE HIGH PRECIP WATERS OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN DESERTS. IN SHORT, NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST, WHICH IS CURRENTLY EMPHASIZING STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS. PYTLAK .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 9, 12:12 PM MST, 4 hours 53 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-100700- SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1212 PM MST TUE JUL 9 2002 .SYNOPSIS...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS UTAH HAS ALLOWED AMPLE MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES IN THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH A SLIGHT DRYING OCCURRING AT LOW-LEVELS TODAY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE GENERALLY CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN DESERTS. .DISCUSSION...A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH HAS ALLOWED A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO IMPORT AMPLE LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES WEST OF A LINE FROM PATAGONIA TO TUCSON TO KEARNY WITH ANOTHER MAXIMUM IN FAR EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY. DRIER AIR AT LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN VALLEYS TODAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WINDS THERE. ALTHOUGH THE REGION WILL EXPERIENCE A LACK OF ANY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...A VERY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING POSSIBLY ENHANCING STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BEGIN TO PUSH WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE WESTERN DESERTS THIS EVENING. THE RISK OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR CLIMATOLOGY TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS OCCURRING. AS THE THUNDERSTORMS PUSH INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN DESERTS...THE RISK OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH INCREASES. THEREFORE...THE REGION WILL SEE CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH PROBABILITIES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY IN THE WESTERN DESERTS.
Special weather statement, Jul 9, 4:33 PM MST, 32 minutes before
AZZ029>035-100400- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 433 PM MST TUE JUL 9 2002 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 502 IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA UNTIL 9 PM... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9 PM. THIS WATCH INCLUDES PIMA...SOUTHEAST PINAL...SOUTHWEST GRAHAM...AND NORTHERN COCHISE COUNTIES. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH HAVE PRODUCED DUST STORMS AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND MAY AFFECT THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS EVENING... ESPECIALLY WEST OF TUCSON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND BLOWING DUST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AS NEW THUNDERSTORMS THREATEN THE AREA. PYTLAK
Local storm report, Jul 9, 5:00 PM MST, 5 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
0500 PM MST TUE JUL 9 2002
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0315 PM TUCSON AZ DUST STORM
07/09/02 PIMA VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO
EAST SIDE OF TOWN
WIND GUST TO 49 MPH
AT TUCSON ARPT
0320 PM TUCSON AZ DUST STORM
07/09/02 PIMA 5 VEHICLE ACCIDENT 12 CAR CHAIN
AT DREXEL RD AND DREXEL AVE AND
INTERSTATE 10
0335 PM TUCSON AZ DUST STORM
07/09/02 PIMA VISIBILITIES TO ONE
QUARTER MILE AT
NWS OFFICELocal storm report, Jul 9, 5:05 PM MST, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
0505 PM MST TUE JUL 9 2002
TIME(MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0315 PM TUCSON AZ DUST STORM
07/09/02 PIMA VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO
EAST SIDE OF TOWN. WIND
GUST TO 49 MPH AT TUCSON
ARPT
0320 PM TUCSON AZ DUST STORM
07/09/02 PIMA 5 VEHICLE ACCIDENT AT
DREXEL RD AND DREXEL AVE
AND INTERSTATE 10
0335 PM TUCSON AZ DUST STORM
07/09/02 PIMA VISIBILITIES TO ONE
QUARTER MILE AT NWS OFFICEThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 9, 5:16 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 29 min |
| Jul 9, 7:11 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 34 min |
| Jul 10, 2:26 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 34 min |
| Jul 10, 2:57 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 48 min |
| Jul 10, 3:20 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 40 min |
| Jul 10, 4:00 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 30 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.