Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A DAILY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THROUGH MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...PORTENDS OF STRONG INSTABILITY IN THE 12Z KTUS
SOUNDING HAVE STARTED TO COME TO FRUITION THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUICK TO MATURE OVER MOST SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
MOUNTAINS. CONTINUED EASTERLY STEERING LEVEL FLOW WITH PW VALUES UP
ABOUT .1 TO .2 ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD SEE OUTFLOW INTO VALLEY
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...KEEPING A SPECIAL
EYE ON OUTFLOW FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE DEWPTS HAVE HELD UP WELL IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 RANGE.
LOWER DESERTS REMAIN A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR OUTFLOW AND PROPAGATION
OF STORMS IN THE EVENING. TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE A
FINE TIME TO BE A THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

LARGER SCALE...NOT REALLY MUCH CHANGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS THE
PERIOD SLOWS INTO A LONGER WAVE WITH A MEAN POSITION ACROSS MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. HIGH CENTER TO OUR NORTH SHOULD SAG SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THIS...LIKELY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ADD A DEEPER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW LATER IN THE WEEK. OUR PART OF THE STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE. M

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-150700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1155 AM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

.SYNOPSIS...PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WITH STRONGER STORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING ONE INCH WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OUT IN THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE.

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
CWA WITH GOES PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4 INCHES IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS TO NEAR 1 INCH IN THE EAST.  12Z KTUS SOUNDING SHOWED AN
INCREASE TO 1.31 INCHES FROM LAST NIGHTS 1.18 INCHES.  ALTHOUGH THE
VAD WIND PROFILER AT YUMA HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME SORT OF MOISTURE
SEEPAGE WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AT 20 KNOTS UP TO 400O
FEET...MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THE MAIN
CONCERN OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING ONE INCH. MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL
ALSO BE A BIT FASTER...LIMITING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCES NEAR CLIMO OUT IN THE WESTERN DESERTS
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. ALSO THE AREA BETWEEN SASABE...TO
ARIVACA...AND AMADO HAD SOMEWHAT OF A TRAINING SITUATION
YESTERDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER AMADO AREA AND
MOVE SOUTHWEST...WITH ESTIMATED STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES OUT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE 12K KTUS SOUNDING IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE POSSIBLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...OVER 4000 J/KG.
OF COURSE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY.

THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
0201 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0201 PM    PATAGONIA                 AZ   WIND DAMAGE
07/14/02   SANTA CRUZ                     SIGNS BLOWN DOWN. 1/2 INCH HAIL
                                          COVERING THE GROUND.

AZZ019-029>035-150400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
255 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 510 FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...EFFECTIVE UNTIL 9 PM. THIS
WATCH INCLUDES GREENLEE...GRAHAM...COCHISE...PIMA...SANTA CRUZ...AND
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTIES.

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE TUCSON METRO AREA...SAFFORD...CLIFTON...
ORACLE...ELOY...PICACHO PEAK...SELLS...AJO...NOGALES...SIERRA
VISTA...WILLCOX...AND DOUGLAS.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER...BLOWING DUST...AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR COMMERCIAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES.

PYTLAK