Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
930 AM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

.SYNOPSIS...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
FOR A DAILY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK. AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WILL LEAD TO MORE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TODAY AND MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...12Z KTUS SOUNDING LOOKS LEAN AND MEAN. PW VALUES UP
ABOUT .1 OVER YESTERDAY AND PROFILE/STABILITY INDICES POINTING
TOWARD ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS. GOES SOUNDER PW TRENDS UP A
LITTLE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. SURFACE DEWPTS UP A FEW
DEGREES AS A 24 HR TREND...INTO THE LOWER 60S. GLANCING AT THE
SOUNDING AND CONSIDERING A CONTINUATION OF A STEADY SEEP OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD BE SLOW TO START IN WESTERN AREAS
WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 24 HRS...BUT THE LOWER DESERTS
REMAIN A STRONG CANDIDATE FOR OUTFLOW AND PROPAGATION OF STORMS IN
THE EVENING. TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY LOOK LIKE A FINE TIME TO
BE A THUNDERSTORM IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

LARGER SCALE...NOT REALLY MUCH CHANGE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WEST...BUT THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AS THE
PERIOD SLOWS INTO A LONGER WAVE WITH A MEAN POSITION ACROSS MOST OF
THE COUNTRY. OUR LOCAL HIGH CENTER SHOULD SAG SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THIS...LIKELY FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ADD A DEEPER SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO
THE FLOW. OUR PART OF THE STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. M

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-150700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1155 AM MST SUN JUL 14 2002

.SYNOPSIS...PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...WITH STRONGER STORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING ONE INCH WILL BE BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...WITH
THE BETTER CHANCE OUT IN THE WESTERN DESERTS WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE.

.DISCUSSION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE
CWA WITH GOES PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM 1.4 INCHES IN FAR WESTERN
AREAS TO NEAR 1 INCH IN THE EAST.  12Z KTUS SOUNDING SHOWED AN
INCREASE TO 1.31 INCHES FROM LAST NIGHTS 1.18 INCHES.  ALTHOUGH THE
VAD WIND PROFILER AT YUMA HAS BEEN INDICATING SOME SORT OF MOISTURE
SEEPAGE WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AT 20 KNOTS UP TO 400O
FEET...MOISTURE DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR THE MAIN
CONCERN OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING ONE INCH. MOVEMENT OF STORMS WILL
ALSO BE A BIT FASTER...LIMITING FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCES NEAR CLIMO OUT IN THE WESTERN DESERTS
WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. ALSO THE AREA BETWEEN SASABE...TO
ARIVACA...AND AMADO HAD SOMEWHAT OF A TRAINING SITUATION
YESTERDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER AMADO AREA AND
MOVE SOUTHWEST...WITH ESTIMATED STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 2 TO 3
INCHES.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES OUT IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  THE 12K KTUS SOUNDING IS RATHER
IMPRESSIVE GIVEN THE POSSIBLE CAPE TO WORK WITH...OVER 4000 J/KG.
OF COURSE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ALREADY.

THUNDERSTORM MOTION WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.