Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2002, 6:12 PM MST for Pinal County, Arizona. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 12, 2002, 6:12 PM MST (01:12 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 12, 2002, 6:40 PM MST
- In force
- 28 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Pinal County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 49 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 820 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -16 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3273 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 26 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
221 WUUS55 KTWC 130112 SVRTWC AZC021-130140- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 612 PM MST FRI JUL 12 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 640 PM MST * AT 601 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SAN MANUEL WEST AT 20 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... ORACLE AT 620 PM MST GO INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY. LAT...LON 3253 11062 3266 11065 3265 11085 3253 11075 GLUECK
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 2:30 PM MST, 3 hours 42 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 230 PM MST FRI JUL 12 2002 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER UTAH WILL KEEP DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL GUIDE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...LEADING TO A DAILY RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. .DISCUSSION...LITTLE BIT OF A DRY PUNCH PUSHING IN FROM THE THE NORTHEAST EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES SOUNDER PW ESTIMATES...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INHIBIT CONVECTION OVER THE EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS...IN THE 1.2 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE. SURFACE DEWPTS HAVE AGAIN MIXED OUT TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MAKES FOR A LOW SCATTERED MOUNTAIN / ISOLATED VALLEY THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH ONE OR TWO POTENTIALLY SEVERE. WELL NEED TO WATCH AS OUTFLOW COMES OFF THE RIM AS WELL. NICE LITTLE COMPLEX OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN SONORA FORMED OVERNIGHT AND PUSHED OFF INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SLIGHT TO MODERATE PRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL DOWN THE GULF AS WELL (SEEMS TO BE FILLING IN FAIRLY RAPIDLY TODAY THOUGH). LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE WELL SEE A SURGE ENHANCEMENT THROUGH THE LOWER DESERTS OVER THE NEXT 36HRS AS HINTED AT BY THE MESO-ETA. THIS WOULD BE ON TOP OF THE 10 TO 15KTS UP TO 4K FT ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE YUMA VWP. WELL FOCUS ON SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UP TIME FOR STORMS WITH MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. ON THE LARGER SCALE...POSITIONING OF THE HIGH CENTER BY EARLY IN THE WEEK OPENS THE DOOR EVEN FURTHER FOR A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW. EXPECT HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES AS WE GET INTO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. M .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 12, 5:32 PM MST, 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
0532 PM MST FRI JUL 12 2002
TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0454 PM SAFFORD AZ 69 MPH TSTM GUST
07/12/02 GRAHAM SAFFORD AIRPORT
0525 PM DUNCAN AZ WIND DAMAGE
07/12/02 GREENLEE SHINGLES BLOWN OFF HOUSEThe office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 5:02 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Graham | 28 min |
| Jul 12, 6:14 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 26 min |
| Jul 12, 7:13 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 32 min |
| Jul 12, 7:23 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Cochise, Pima | 27 min |
| Jul 13, 3:59 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | 46 min | |
| Jul 13, 4:20 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 40 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.