Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1130 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002

BACK TO SPRINGTIME. HAVE ISSUED UPDATE FOR SEVERE TSTM WATCH
808...ALONG WITH UPDATE FOR HIGHER POPS SOUTH OF I-40. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. VERY SPRINGLIKE
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN LOW 60S.
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ELEVATED IN NATURE THUS FAR...EVEN
SO A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE HAIL OVER SC OK. NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT
ANY STORMS BECOMING ROOTED IN BL AS FAR NORTH AS SE OK SO MAINLY
LOOKING AT THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. WILL UPDATE HWO MOMENTARILY.

MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO NW SECTIONS OF CWA
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST. CHANCE OF PRECIP MINIMAL ONCE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF NE OKLAHOMA
FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME HIGHER POPS EAST OF TULSA BEFORE
ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

IN ADDITION...MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP AND WIND GRIDS BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SULLIVAN

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-311200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...SOUTH OF A LINE FROM OKMULGEE OKLAHOMA TO FORT SMITH ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...100

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...40
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...12:30 PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...20
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...20

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE
COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. MOST OF THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED IN NATURE...HOWEVER STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 C/KM WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME ROOTED IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ076-301615-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR LE FLORE COUNTY UNTIL 1015
   AM CST...

AT 936 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTHEAST OF BIG CEDAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF BIG CEDAR AND MUSE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 1015 AM CST. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-301830-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1155 AM CST MON DEC 30 2002

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CRAWFORD...SEBASTIAN AND
   SEQUOYAH COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CST...

AT 1155 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTH OF MULDROW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE
COMMUNITIES OF MULDROW...ROLAND...MOFFETT...FORT SMITH...BARLING...
VAN BUREN...CEDARVILLE...KIBLER...SHIBLEY...FURRY AND FIGURE FIVE
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM THROUGH 1230 PM CST. RESIDENTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.