Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 284, NWS Tulsa, OK
NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Oct 6, 2002, 3:50 PM CDT for Sebastian County, Arkansas. It was in force for 40 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 6, 2002, 3:50 PM CDT (20:50 UTC)
- Expired
- Oct 6, 2002, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 40 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tulsa, OK
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Sebastian County, AR
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 17 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 202 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2285 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 301 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 326 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
975 WUUS54 KTSA 062050 SVRTUL ARC131-062130- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 350 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 350 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF MIDLAND...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. * SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...GREENWOOD... HUNTINGTON...MIDLAND...BURNVILLE...EXCELSIOR AND MANSFIELD. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH. LAT...LON 3517 9447 3504 9448 3504 9423 3527 9407
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Oct 6, 3:10 PM CDT, 40 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 6, 3:10 PM CDT, 40 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA 310 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002 WINDSHIFT LINE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SE OK...ALTHO COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS (TRUE COLD FRONT) IS LAGGING FARTHER N OVER NE OK. STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING JUST AHEAD OF FRONT...COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...HAS YIELDED SBCAPES AROUND 2000 K/JG OVER SE OK/WCNTRL AR THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW HAILERS POSSIBLE. WILL EXTEND POPS INTO THE EVENING OVER SE OK/NW AR...WITH CLEARING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SFC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR MONDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANTLY COOL TEMPS IN STORE. UPPER LOW ANALYZED OVER FAR SRN CA AT 12Z IS PROGGD TO LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHO MODELS DISAGREE WITH TIMING. AVN IS THE FASTEST/STRONGEST...BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS OK ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF/GEM/NOGAPS AND ETAX ALL ARE A BIT WEAKER/SLOWER WITH THIS SAME SYSTEM. PLAN ON LEANING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION THAN THE AVN...WITH HIGHEST POPS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL UNCERTAIN WHAT TO DO WITH POPS ON TUESDAY...AND MAY LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE TO FAR WRN ZONES. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS SFC RIDGING FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND RETURN FLOW STRENGTHENS. SHUD SEE TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES. FATE OF AFOREMENTIONED LOW OVER THE WEEKEND IS REALLY IN QUESTION...WITH THE GFS LIFTING IT RATHER QUICKLY NE WHILE THE ECWMF KEEPS THE SYSTEM NEARLY CUTOFF ALG THE CA COAST. HATE TO FLIP-FLOP...BUT WILL REMOVE 20 POPS SAT AND JUST KEEP SUN DRY FOR NOW UNTIL THE SITUATION BECOMES MORE CLEAR. PRELIM NUMBERS... TUL 45 71 47 72 / 5 0 5 20 FSM 50 73 44 75 / 30 0 5 10 MLC 50 74 47 74 / 30 0 5 20 BVO 41 69 42 72 / 5 0 5 20 FYV 40 66 38 70 / 10 0 5 10 BYV 43 65 41 70 / 10 0 5 10 MIO 42 67 44 69 / 5 0 5 10 MKO 49 71 47 73 / 10 0 5 10 F10 50 71 47 72 / 10 0 5 20 HHW 53 74 49 74 / 40 0 5 20 FORECAST ID = 18 .TSA... AR...NONE. OK...NONE.
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 6, 1:00 PM CDT, 2 hours 50 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-071200-
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 6 2002
THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND MUCH OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
.DAY ONE...
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE THROUGH EUFAULA... FAYETTEVILLE
...BERRYVILLE
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...100
IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...60
TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...230 PM
PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...10/00
PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER...30
PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...40
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.
DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 8 HOURS.
THE ATMOSHPHERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES TO AROUND 2000 AT
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE EXISTING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HAIL. IN
ADDITION...THE MOISTURE PROFILE MAY ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF DOWNBURST
WINDS. WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH BY THE FRONT...WITH THE STORMS ENDING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE EXITING THE AREA BY LATE
EVENING.
.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVIATION THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WILL ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
RELATIVELY STABLE AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSANearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.