Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
910 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2002

STRONG 50H S/W OVER EASTERN CO/NM BEGINNING TO LIFT INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IN RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 80KT UPPER JET.  STILL EXPECT
ELEVATED TSTMS TO CLIP FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
MAIN PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN NORTHWEST OVER KANSAS AS LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS SHIFTS NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH FA ON NW/DRY SIDE OF TROPICAL SYSTEM.
SENT UPDATED ZONES EARLIER TO BUMP POPS TO LIKELY OVER OSAGE/PAWNEE/
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.  LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
FOR REASONS STATED ABOVE.

COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN OK BY 18Z FRI AND
THROUGH REMAINDER OF FA BY MID AFTERNOON.  DRY FROPA LIKELY AS
SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
FRONT.

FORECAST ID= 12

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
600 AM CDT THU OCT 3 2002

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM COPAN OKLAHOMA TO BRISTOW
OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...50

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY THAT THEY WILL BE SEVERE...30
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...12:00 AM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 TORNADO OR LARGER...0/0
PROBABILITY OF DIME HAIL / GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...20/0
PROBABILITY OF 58 MPH WIND / 73 MPH WIND...30/5

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS MORNING IN THE
VICINITY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY
HAS STAYED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...THOUGH SOME
ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES...AND ALSO WAS EXHIBITING
SLOW MOVEMENT. HURRICANE LILI WAS JUST OF THE LOUISIANA COAST THIS
MORNING. AS LILI MOVES INLAND...ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL STREAM
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE UPPER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
OF THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AS LILI GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE UPPER TROUGH
AND BEGINS TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND
WILL PUSH QUICKLY TO THE EAST ONCE THE UPPER SYSTEM STARTS TO LIFT
NORTHEAST. LACK OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS RESULTING FROM LILI WILL CONFINE THE
SEVERE WEATHER RISK TO AREAS NORTHWEST OF TULSA.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SETTLED
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA