Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
920 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

CURRENT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORHTEAST AND IS MAKING
ONLY SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.  EXTRAPOLATION INDICATES BY 11 PM
THE LINE WILL REACH FROM NORTHERN NOWATA COUNTY TO SOUTHEAST OSAGE
AND WESTERN CREEK.  UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AS UPPER TROF
CONTINUES TO DIG TO OUR WEST.  THAT WILL KEEP THE STORM MOTION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND LIMIT THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION TO MAINLY
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TSTM GUST FRONTS.  TSTORMS OVER WEST TEXAS
LIKELY RESPONDING TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST.  THE TROF WILL
BE IN THE TX PHNDL BY 18Z THURSDAY...WITH STRONG DYNAMICS THROUGH
CENTRAL OK...AND WILL ALLOW THE COLDFRONT TO START MOVING EASTWARD.
EXPECT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY
SEVERE...WITH SECOND SURGE OF STRONG STORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING
ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLDFRONT...ENANCED WITH THE APPROACHING
500MB TROF.

WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
THINKING.  NOT INCLINED TO CHANGE ANY LOW TEMPS...EXCEPT FOR RAIN
COOLED AREAS.

FORECAST ID = 02

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2002

...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.  AT
THEIR CURRENT SPEED AND DIRECTION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD REACH WESTERN PORTIONS OF OSAGE...PAWNEE...CREEK AND OKFUSKEE
COUNTIES AROUND MID EVENING.  A BROADER AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO THE WEST OF A MIAMI TO WAGONER TO HENRYETTA
LINE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER ALL OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
THE VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SWING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE STRONG
DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
OKLAHOMA SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC THURSDAY

AREA 1...ALONG AND WEST OF A MIAMI TO WAGONER TO HENRYETTA LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...70
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...90
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40

THREAT AREAS DEFINE GREATEST RISK.  PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO
DAMAGE AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA