Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 230, NWS Tulsa, OK

July 18, 2002Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 18, 2002, 4:52 PM CDT for Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 53 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2002, 4:52 PM CDT (21:52 UTC)
Expired: Jul 18, 2002, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Madison County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 113 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:53 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 18, 5:00 PM CDT	Thunderstorm Wind 61 E	Hindsville, AR	Thunderstorm winds estimated at 70 miles an hour blew trees down onto Highway 45.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 83 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2076 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 601 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 134 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 120 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

954 
WUUS54 KTSA 182152
SVRTUL
ARC087-182245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT

* AT 452 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER
  CLIFTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...HUNTSVILLE...
  AURORA...KINGSTON...HINDSVILLE...FORUM...WITTER...MARBLE AND
  CLIFTY.

WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY 
INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3634 9373 3617 9391 3590 9374 3605 9345

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 18, 4:00 PM CDT, 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 4:00 PM CDT, 52 minutes before

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
400 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2002

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON.  A COUPLE HAVE BEEN SEVERE.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.  WILL CARRY ISOLATED
WORDING IN ZONES.  SIMILAR DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY BUT HOPE MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EASTERN CWA.

SHOULD DRY OUT OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...MAY STILL SEE AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IN THE TERRAIN AREAS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ON THE RISE AS WELL.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY STILL IN QUESTION AS AVN
BUILD BIG COMPLEX IN KS AND TRIES TO MOVE SOUTH.  WILL KEEP CURRENT
EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW BUT MAY NEED TO ADD POPS THEN.  ECMWF AND GFS
BRING WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY SO
ADDED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THEN.  OTHERWISE...MAJORITY OF
EXTENDED UNCHANGED.

TUL  74  93  75  93 /  20  10  10  10
FSM  72  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  10
MLC  72  91  73  93 /  20  10  10  10
BVO  71  93  72  93 /  20  10  10  10
FYV  67  86  69  87 /  20  20  20  10
BYV  67  86  69  86 /  20  20  20  10
MIO  70  90  71  90 /  20  20  20  10
MKO  71  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10
F10  71  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10
HHW  72  91  73  91 /  20  10  10  10

HOWIESON
FORECAST ID= 44

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 1:15 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes before

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-191200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER EXTREME EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF TULSA. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MISSOURI
INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 2:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	48 min
Jul 18, 4:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	39 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.