Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
300 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST NORTH OF CWA OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
...EXTENDING NE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.  ISOLATED SVR STORM DEVELOPED
ALONG BOUNDARY...BUT HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT LAST FEW VOLUME SCANS.
LIS CURRENTLY AROUND -5 TO -6 ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH BACKED
LOW LEVEL FLOW. COULD SEE ISOLATED SVR STORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS OVER FAR NORTHEAST OK...HOWEVER BELIEVE MAIN CONVECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN OK BY LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION.  THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP INTO AN MCS LATTER THIS EVENING...PUSHING INTO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND MIDNIGHT.  IN APPEARS THAT BEST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WILL BE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR OVER EASTERN
OK...HOWEVER CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG FOR ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT CONFIGURATION THROUGH TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHOULD PUSH EAST OUT OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA/
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY NOON SATURDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES DECREASING.
COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OVER FAR NW ARK DURING THE
AFTERNOON.  BKN/OVC CLOUD DECK WILL LIKELY KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN CHECK.
SHOULD SEE A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER INTO SUNDAY WITH TEMPS BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S.

EXTENDED...ADDED POPS MON-WED TO TREND MORE TOWARD AVN SOLUTION.
CUT OFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING PRECIP
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.  ALSO WITH BUMPED HIGH TEMPS DOWN WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.

FCSTID = 12

TUL  66  76  58  81 /  90  40  10  10
FSM  67  78  62  84 /  80  70  10  10
MLC  66  78  63  83 /  90  70  10  10
BVO  60  74  56  81 /  90  20  10  10
FYV  64  73  60  79 /  90  70  10  10
BYV  64  73  60  77 /  90  70  10  10
MIO  65  76  59  80 /  90  40  10  10
MKO  66  75  59  83 /  90  40  10  10
F10  66  76  60  83 /  90  40  10  10
HHW  66  81  62  84 /  80  70  10  10

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT OKZ054>064...OKZ067.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...

...A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
   NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS OVERNIGHT...

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  ADDITIONAL
SEVERE STORMS HAVE FORMED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING TOWARD EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE STORMS WILL
MERGE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX AND CONTINUE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.  STRONG
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING OVER NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...AND LATE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.

.DISCUSSION...
A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORMING IN PROXIMITY TO THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE ENHANCING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION.  SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE EARLY STAGES OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD AND SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA.

THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS HIGHEST ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.  CONCENTRATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH SATURATED SOILS WILL ENHANCE THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC SATURDAY

AREA 1...NORTHWEST OF A MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO MIAMI OKLAHOMA LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...100
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...80
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...40

AREA 2...SOUTHEAST OF A MCALESTER OKLAHOMA TO MIAMI OKLAHOMA LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...80
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20

AREA 3...SOUTHEAST OF A FAYETTEVILLE ARKANSAS TO POTEAU OKLAHOMA LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...60
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...20
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...10

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.OTHER HAZARDS...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH TONIGHT AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.  PLEASE
REFER TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH /OKCFFATUL/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA