Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 7, 2002Osage County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 7, 2002, 3:10 PM CDT for Osage County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 50 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 7, 2002, 3:10 PM CDT (20:10 UTC)
Expired
May 7, 2002, 4:00 PM CDT
In force
50 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Osage County, OK

The radar

The Wichita radar (KICT), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 7, 3:25 PM CDTHail 0.88Grainola, OK

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 194 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2002-05-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1864 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Norman, OK at 12:00Z on 2002-05-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 333 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1864 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-269 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
842 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
333 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
312 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KTSA 072010
SVRTUL
OKC113-072100-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
310 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWEST OSAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 309 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
  NEAR SHIDLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...SHIDLER...
  FORAKER AND GRAINOLA.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE 
EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS 
UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3681 9687 3673 9671 3700 9641 3701 9671

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 7, 10:15 AM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 7, 10:15 AM CDT, 4 hours 55 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1015 AM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

CURRENTLY WATCHING CONVECTION ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO THIS MORNING.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ROUGHLY APPROACHING A KJLN-KSGF LINE WAS SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTH.  WITH A FAIRLY STRONG CAP NOTED PER AREA SOUNDINGS...THINK
CHANCES FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON ARE SLIM.  HOW
FAR SOUTH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO LOW
POPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR LOOK REASONABLE.  MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED THIS
MORNING.

FCSTID = 23

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 7, 1:20 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081100-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA / NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT TUE MAY 7 2002

...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WERE MOVING EAST...WHILE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR A STATIONARY FRONT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TONIGHT. A SECOND FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
DRYLINE SITUATED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST OFF THE DRYLINE MAY ENTER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

.SPOTTER ACTIVATION...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW AND MID LEVEL JET DYNAMICS
SUBSIDE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG
A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
KANSAS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOST LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND HEAD TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SUSTAINED AS A 55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IS REESTABLISHED ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA WILL MOVE
EAST....POSSIBLY MOVING INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE HAMPERED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA BY EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS COMBINED WITH
A FAIRLY STRONG CAP MAY LIMIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

THREAT TABLE
VALID THROUGH 1200 UTC WEDNESDAY

AREA 1...NORTH OF A BRISTOW TO WAGONER TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY...20
SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...50
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITY IF STORMS OCCUR...05

THREAT AREAS DEFINE THE GREATEST RISK. PROBABILITIES ARE IN PERCENT.
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS DEFINED AS F1 OR GREATER WIND/TORNADO DAMAGE
AND/OR GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 7, 2:50 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage25 min
May 7, 3:52 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAOsage53 min
May 7, 4:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAWashington42 min
May 7, 4:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSANowata64 min
May 7, 4:41 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSAWashington34 min
May 7, 5:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Ottawa59 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.