Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN

THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF CNK TO EMP TO JLN. EXPECT THIS
BOUNDARY TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERE WEATHER A THREAT. 18Z
SOUNDING AGAIN SHOWED AN DECENT CAP. AFTER MODIFYING THE SOUNDING
FEEL THAT WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...CAP WILL BREAK THERE FIRST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
AGAIN FORM INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO MO OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE MCS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ONE.
ALSO...RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AVERAGED A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS GETTING MORE THAN AN INCH. NEVER THE LESS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH RAINFALL CLOSELY TONIGHT.

THE SAME SETUP REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN KS...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS STAYS PUT AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. KEPT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. I SPREAD THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE CWA TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP FROM THE MCS.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
PUSHING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY. I ALSO REMOVED POPS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY THINKING THAT THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RETURN
IN TIME. MODELS DO SHOW LEE TROUGH DEEPENING FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO
CONTINUED WITH THE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
TO BEGIN AGAIN. WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE
MORE AMPLIFIED OUTPUTS FROM THE MODELS. THE 00Z MRF WAS KIND OF THE
OUTLYER...HOWEVER THE 12Z AVN HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
AND OTHERS. MODELS SHOW THE LEE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SO I ADDED POPS INTO SATURDAY AND KEPT THEM INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.TOP...NONE

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1031 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1027 PM    2 N DUNLAP                KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   MORRIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1032 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1027 PM    1 W PERRY                 KS    .88 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   JEFFERSON                       SPOTTER 1 MILE WEST OF
                                           PERRY REPORTING NICKLE
                                           SIZE HAIL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1034 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1032 PM    PERRY                     KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   JEFFERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1041 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1035 PM    ARVONIA                   KS   60-70 MPH TSTM GUST
05/06/02   OSAGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1043 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1035 PM    2 N ARVONIA               KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   OSAGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1120 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1105 PM    SILKVILLE                 KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   FRANKLIN                        REPORTED BY NWS SPOTTER

1118 PM    EUDORA                    KS    .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   DOUGLAS                         REPORTED BY EM.