Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
330 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
CONCERN

THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE GENERATED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF CNK TO EMP TO JLN. EXPECT THIS
BOUNDARY TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SEVERE WEATHER A THREAT. 18Z
SOUNDING AGAIN SHOWED AN DECENT CAP. AFTER MODIFYING THE SOUNDING
FEEL THAT WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ACROSS CENTRAL KS...CAP WILL BREAK THERE FIRST. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
AGAIN FORM INTO AN MCS AND MOVE INTO MO OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER WITH UNCERTAINTY IN
WHERE THE MCS WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP...DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ONE.
ALSO...RAINFALL FROM LAST NIGHT AVERAGED A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS
WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS GETTING MORE THAN AN INCH. NEVER THE LESS
WILL HAVE TO WATCH RAINFALL CLOSELY TONIGHT.

THE SAME SETUP REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW
REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN KS...A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS STAYS PUT AND
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE OVERHEAD IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. KEPT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. I SPREAD THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WHOLE CWA TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR
ANY LEFT OVER PRECIP FROM THE MCS.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING
PUSHING THE MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. WITH SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
AREA I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST THURSDAY. I ALSO REMOVED POPS DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY THINKING THAT THE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO RETURN
IN TIME. MODELS DO SHOW LEE TROUGH DEEPENING FRIDAY AFTERNOON SO
CONTINUED WITH THE POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA
TO BEGIN AGAIN. WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED THE
MORE AMPLIFIED OUTPUTS FROM THE MODELS. THE 00Z MRF WAS KIND OF THE
OUTLYER...HOWEVER THE 12Z AVN HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF
AND OTHERS. MODELS SHOW THE LEE TROUGH TO MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS
SATURDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SO I ADDED POPS INTO SATURDAY AND KEPT THEM INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

.TOP...NONE

WOLTERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
939 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0938 PM    WILLARD                   KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   SHAWNEE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
944 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0940 PM    3 SW DUNLAP               KS    .88 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   MORRIS                          NICKEL HAIL REPORTED BY
                                           PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
952 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0948 PM    5 N AMERICUS              KS    60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/06/02   LYON                            REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                           SPOTTER

0950 PM    (TOP)BILLARD ARPT TOPEKA  KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   SHAWNEE

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-070330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1005 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2002

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 242 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH NUMBER 244.

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 400
AM CDT...

JACKSON           SHAWNEE          DOUGLAS
JEFFERSON         OSAGE            FRANKLIN
COFFEY            ANDERSON         LYON
WABAUNSEE         GEARY            MORRIS
DICKINSON

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE NO LONGER UNDER A TORNADO OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH...

REBUBLIC           WASHINGTON      MARSHALL
NEMAHA             BROWN           CLOUD
OTTAWA             CLAY            RILEY
POTTAWATOMIE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1009 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0957 PM    GRANTVILLE                KS    1 INCH HAIL
05/06/02   JEFFERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1013 PM CDT MON MAY 06 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1010 PM    ADMIRE                    KS    WIND DAMAGE
05/06/02   LYON