Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
317 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2002

SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST.

IN THE SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS...THAT HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL
BY MODELS...CONTINUE TO PLOD SOUTHEAST INTO CWA. HAS BECOME APPARENT
IN LAST HOUR THAT WILL HAVE TO CARRY SCT TRW- INTO THE EVENING
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF CWA AS RADAR SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS FIRING UP
ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS WHERE AIRMASS MORE
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES IN 1500 TO 2000 RANGE. HAVE TO GIVE AVN MODEL
SOME CREDIT AS IT WAS SHOWING SIME QPF INTO NORTH CENTRAL THIS
EVENING.

BEYOND TONIGHT...MODELS IMPLYING A WEAK...DIRTY RIDGE BUILDING OVER
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO AREA AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AT SURFACE/850 MB...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO HOLD FROM EASTERN IOWA
INTO EASTERN KS WHILE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE FARTHER WEST
ACROSS WESTERN KS. THUS EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA TUESDAY.
MODELS INDICATING NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH MAINLY
UPPER 80S LIKELY AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

BOTH AVN AND ETA THEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN DRAGGING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH UPPER RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH CENTRAL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN NORTH
CENTRAL AND MOST OF NORTHEAST KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
BE KNOCKED DOWN A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY...AND ON OUT THROUGH THE EXTENDED...WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT. FAIRLY STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN
INDICATED TO CONTINUE WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER CWA WHILE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS OVER MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AGAIN...NOT MUCH CHANGE
INDICATED IN TEMPERATRURES WITH DAYTIME HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90...AND NIGHTTIME LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S.

.TOP...NONE.

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