Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
318 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2002

HEAT AND HUMIDITY MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST...

BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON LIFTING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER BY EARLY EVENING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
ROWS OF COUNTIES. WAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO ON PROFILERS
WILL CONTINUE EASTERLY ACROSS NEBRASKA TONIGHT. THIS MAY HELP TO
KEEP THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY SLIP SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN KANSAS. 700-500 MB TROF TO MOVE ACROSS CWA SATURDAY MORNING
SO WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERMAL BOUNDARIES MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY AND MAY PROVIDE FOCUS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THUS WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL.

SHORTWAVE MOVING ON SHORE OUT WEST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS KANSAS
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THOUGH.

REST OF THE WEEK LOOKING DRY WITH A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND CRANKS UP THE
HEAT.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY BE DICTATED BY AMOUNT OF CLOUDS, BUT
SHOULD STILL REACH THE LOW 100S MOST PLACES. HEAT INDICES WILL STAY
UP TONIGHT NEAR 80 WITH 105 TO 110 EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WILL ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

.TOP...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MINNEAPOLIS TO CLAY CENTER TO HORTON.

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1245 PM CDT FRI JUL 26 2002

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS.

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT,
MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH IS SITUATED FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO
NEAR HIAWATHA. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO FORM SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP EXPLOSIVELY, SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE CREATED A BOUNDARY. THIS
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR CONCORDIA TO NEAR HIAWATHA THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL COMBINE WILL PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A CAP IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

WOLTERS