Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
220 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

SLOW TRACKING UPPER LOW WILL HOLD OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT
BEFORE PUSHING TOWARD THE ARKANSAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE SOUTHERN PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WILL TEND TO
DRAW MOST OF FORECAST PRECIP SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE CORE OF 700-300MB Q-CONVERGENCE IS NEAR OK-KS-MO INTERSECTION AT
06Z WED THROUGH AROUND 18Z...BEFORE SLIDING ON TO THE EAST.

MEANWHILE THE NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AXIS IS GENERALLY THROUGH THE
EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES BY 06Z TONIGHT.  CONSIDERED REMOVING
MENTION OF PRECIP ENTIRELY FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER
TONIGHT...BUT OPTED TO COMPROMISE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND KEEP
A CHANCE ON WEDNESDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-35 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA (NEAR THE KANSAS TURNPIKE)...THEN DRY
TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

AS THE H500 LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ALL MODELS
BUT THE AVN KEEP A RIDGE NOSED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE AVN
HAS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW THAT PUSHES
THROUGH.  AT THIS TIME...WILL IGNORE THE OUTLIER AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY WITH ONLY SOME CLOUDS.

THE SOUTHWEST U.S. HIGH BUILDS MORE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY...BUT BY
SATURDAY THE NORTHERN STREAM HAS ENOUGH ENERGY TO BEGIN FLATTENING
THE RIDGE AS A STRONG LOW STRENGTHENS ALONG THE WEST COAST.  AS A
RESULT...ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO NEAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER
BEGINNING SATURDAY...THEN ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWEST.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
329 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0318 PM    10 NNE CLAY CENTER        KS    1.75 INCH HAIL
05/28/02   CLAY