Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
129 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...

COMBINATION OF WARM ADVECTION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AND
UPPER IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  (SPC HAS SMALL PART OF CWA
IN THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING...AND NOTHING FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.)  WILL END PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER NORTHWEST TWO
THIRDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS IS
IN LINE WITH EARLIER THINKING.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION VISITS THE
NEIGHBORHOOD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO WILL INTRODUCE NEW POPS
FOR THAT TIME.

ON TEMPERATURES...WILL FOLLOW A CLOSE BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST.

.TOP...NONE.

34

KSZ008>010-020>023-034>038-270500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
854 PM CDT SUN MAY 26 2002

...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THIS EVENING...MOIST SOUTH WINDS WERE FEEDING MOISTURE INTO NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS...AND CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREA.  THIS MOIST SOUTH FLOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY CAUSE OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.