Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
322 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS
UPPER TROUGH WORKS EAST...THEN LONGER RANGE...PRECIP AND TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY.

WILL KEEP A LOW POP EAST CENTRAL AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT.  CONCERN
MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES...LIGHT SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH EARLY TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS TO THIN SOME LATE TONIGHT.  LEFT OUT ANY FOG
POTENTIAL AS BELIEVE LOW LEVELS WINDS TO STAY UP SOME.  CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS LOOK ON TRACK AND A TAD ABOVE GUIDANCE BUT AGAIN THINK
CLOUDS WILL LINGER SOME AND SHOULD KEEP SOME WIND.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY WITH FEW CLOUDS AROUND.  TEMPS
REBOUNDING TO AROUND 70 MON AND LOW TO MID 70S TUESDAY.  PREFER THE
COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT.

SEVERAL SHORTWAVES BEGIN TO MARCH EAST WED INTO SATURDAY.  COULD SEE
SOME WARM ADVECTION PRECIP EARLY WED...AVN LOOKS TO GO A LITTLE
OVERBOARD WITH VORT 12Z WED...FOR NOW WILL KEEP WED FCST DRY UNTIL
NIGHT WHEN SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDES BY.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN
NORTHERN STREAM COMES BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY GIVING PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN.  COULD LINGER OVER EAST CENTRAL CWA ON SATURDAY SO
PUT SOME POPS BACK IN THERE.  GOING ALONG WITH CURRENT TEMP TRENDS
ALTHOUGH LATEST MEX GUIDANCE STILL COOLER FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
RIDGE BUILDING IN ON EXTENDED MODELS FOR SUNDAY...DRY AND TURNING
WARMER AGAIN.

.TOP...NONE
FRANTZ