Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Great Falls, MT
NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2002, 7:55 PM MDT for Fergus County, Montana. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2002, 7:55 PM MDT (01:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2002, 8:45 PM MDT
- In force
- 50 min
- Issued by
- NWS Great Falls, MT
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Fergus County, MT
The radar
The Billings radar (KBLX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2262 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -6 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2251 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 85 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 138 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 4.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
087 WUUS55 KTFX 160155 SVRTFX MTC027-160245- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 754 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL FERGUS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MONTANA * UNTIL 845 PM MDT * AT 749 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WHEATLAND COUNTY...OR ABOUT 26 MILES SOUTH OF LEWISTOWN...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE MOVING OVER RURAL SOUTHERN FERGUS COUNTY. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS. LAT...LON 4671 10960 4668 10924 4698 10906 4703 10949
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 2:40 PM MDT, 5 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:40 PM MDT, 5 hours 15 minutes before
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2002
.SHORT TERM...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SURFACE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LIFTED INDICES WELL BELOW
ZERO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SW ID AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL MOVE INTO WRN MT THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
IS SHOWING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER CENTRAL
ID AND SW MT. EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW A PATH
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL MT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NW PORTION OF MY CWA. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED CELLS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW...BUT AGREE WITH GGW/BIL FORECASTERS
THAT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IS A GOOD IDEA. DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
MOVES TO SOUTH CENTRAL MT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF MY CWA IN NVA.
WILL DROP POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE AVN BRINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO WESTERN
MT...AND PAINTS COPIOUS QPF OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. TOO SOON TO TELL
IF THIS WILL BE ACCURATE...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM. IF THE THURSDAY SHORTWAVE VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS COULD
DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN THE WEST. MPJ
.EXTENDED...PLAN ON GOING WITH THE ECMWF. MONDAYS 00Z AVN RUN
BROUGHT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO B.C. ON SUN THEN HAD IT MOVING INTO MT
ON MON. PREVIOUS 00Z AVN RUN WAS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. IT
BROUGHT THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW ON MON WITH SW FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE AREA. ECMWF RUNS FROM LAST WEEK ARE VERIFYING BETTER THAN
LAST WEEKS AVN RUNS FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. ALSO NCEP PREFERS THE
ECMWF. AND ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. SO WILL BE DISCOUNTING 00Z MON AVN RUN WHICH HAD COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLANK
.CCF NUMBERS
GTF TB 063/094 063/096 061 14433
TBBBB 090/055 088/056 090/056 090/056 090 22422111222
CTB TB 058/090 059/092 058 14222
TBBBB 086/050 085/052 087/052 087/052 087 22311111222
HLN TB 064/093 062/095 060 14633
TBBBB 090/055 088/057 090/057 090/057 090 23422222222
BZN TB 060/092 060/094 055 14534
TBBBB 089/050 087/052 089/052 089/052 089 23422222222
WEY TB 055/088 054/090 050 14434
TBBBB 085/042 082/043 085/043 085/043 085 24433333333
DLN TB 060/090 058/092 055 14534
TBBBB 087/051 086/053 089/053 089/053 089 24422222222
HVR TB 064/096 064/098 061 14333
TBBBB 094/055 088/056 091/056 091/056 091 22322111222
LWT TB 060/092 061/094 059 14333
TBBBB 091/054 087/055 089/055 089/055 089 22422111222=
.TFX...NONEIn the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 15, 2:20 PM MDT, 5 hours 35 minutes before
LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2002
TIME(MDT) .....EVENT LOCATION..... ST ...EVENT/REMARKS...........
.....COUNTY LOCATION.....
0540 PM HELENA MT 1.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK SOME CAR WINDOWS BROKEN,
TREES DOWN, ELECTRIC
SERVICE DOWN
0540 PM HELENA MT 60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK
0540 PM HELENA MT WIND DAMAGE
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK
0545 PM HELENA MT 0.50 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK TREES, POWER LINES DOWN,
STREET
0545 PM HELENA MT 70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK
0555 PM EAST HELENA MT 1 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK
0555 PM 2 W SILVER CITY MT 0.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK
0555 PM 2 W SILVER CITY MT 60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK
0606 PM TOWNSEND MT 0.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 BROADWATER
0606 PM TOWNSEND MT 61 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 BROADWATER
0620 PM 3 SW GREAT FALLS MT 0.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 CASCADE WIND GUST AT WEATHER
STATION
0620 PM 3 SW GREAT FALLS MT 66 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 CASCADE
0623 PM 5 S GREAT FALLS MT 0.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 CASCADE REPORTED NATL WX EMPLOYEE
0623 PM 5 S GREAT FALLS MT 60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 CASCADE
0630 PM 5 W TOWNSEND MT 70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 BROADWATER GINGER RAWS STATION
0635 PM HELENA MT 59 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 LEWIS AND CLARK RAWS STATION
0635 PM TOWNSEND MT 60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 BROADWATER TWO 100 YEAR OLD TREES
DOWN, POWER LINES DOWN
0635 PM WHITE SULPHUR SPGS MT 0.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 MEAGHER TREE BRANCHES DOWN
0635 PM WHITE SULPHUR SPGS MT 75 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 MEAGHER
0700 PM 7 NE HIGHWOOD MT 0.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 CHOUTEAU
0700 PM 7 NE HIGHWOOD MT 45 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 CHOUTEAU
0710 PM GREAT FALLS MT 59 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 CASCADE DRY MICROBURST TEMP JUMPD
TO
0725 PM POWER MT 1 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 TETON 0.50 INCH OF RAIN IN 30
MINUTES
0725 PM POWER MT 40 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 TETON
0756 PM STANFORD MT 71 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 JUDITH BASIN ONLY 0.06 INCH PRECIP
0758 PM HOBSON MT 70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 JUDITH BASIN WIND SPEED ESTIMATD. VSBY
NEAR
0801 PM MOORE MT 70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 FERGUS VSBY 1/4 DUST, TREE LIMBS
DOWN
0815 PM WISDOM MT 1 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 BEAVERHEAD AT LEAST 1 INCH DIA HAIL
SIZE
0817 PM 3 E DENTON MT 72 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 FERGUS EAST OF DENTON DOT SITE
0820 PM LEWISTOWN MT 72 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 FERGUS MANY TREE LIMBS DOWN.
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.
0830 PM FT BENTON MT 0.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 CHOUTEAU 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20
MINUTES
0830 PM FT BENTON MT 50 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 CHOUTEAU
0835 PM 3 W HILGER MT 70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 FERGUS WATER TANK BLOWN
OVER...TREE LIMBS DOWN
0900 PM ROY MT 65 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 FERGUS
0903 PM HAVRE MT 60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 HILL HAVRE CITY-COUNTY AIRPORT
ASOS
0904 PM WISDOM MT 0.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 BEAVERHEAD
0910 PM VALENTINE MT 64 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 FERGUS
1026 PM FT BELKNAP MT 82 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 BLAINE FORT BELKNAP RAWS STATION
NNNNNearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.