Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Great Falls, MT

July 15, 2002Broadwater County, Montana

NWS Great Falls, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2002, 3:08 PM MDT for Broadwater County, Montana. It was in force for 37 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2002, 3:08 PM MDT (21:08 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2002, 3:45 PM MDT
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Great Falls, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Broadwater County, MT

The radar

The Great Falls radar (KTFX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jul 15, 3:35 PM MDT	Thunderstorm Wind 52 E	Townsend, MT	A severe thunderstorm produced a wind gust of 60 mph at Townsend 6 NE.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Great_falls, MT (KTFX), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 138 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 412 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -154 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2086 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -31 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

401 
WUUS55 KTFX 152108
SVRTFX
MTC007-152145-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
307 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREAT FALLS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN BROADWATER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MONTANA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TOWNSEND

* UNTIL 345 PM MDT

* AT 310 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOWNSEND...MOVING
  NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL BROADWATER COUNTY AT 320 PM MDT
RURAL NORTHERN BROADWATER COUNTY AT 330 PM MDT

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP 
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN GREAT FALLS.

LAT...LON 4644 11181 4621 11172 4641 11125 4667 11152

$$

BRUSDA

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 2:40 PM MDT, 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 2:40 PM MDT, 28 minutes before

SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
240 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2002

.SHORT TERM...MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SURFACE AIRMASS IS RELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND LIFTED INDICES WELL BELOW
ZERO. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH SW ID AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL MOVE INTO WRN MT THIS EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP
IS SHOWING MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING TO FIRE OVER CENTRAL
ID AND SW MT. EXPECT BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW A PATH
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL MT...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NW PORTION OF MY CWA. DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED CELLS COULD
PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. MODELS DISAGREE ON LOCATION OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TOMORROW...BUT AGREE WITH GGW/BIL FORECASTERS
THAT BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT IS A GOOD IDEA. DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
MOVES TO SOUTH CENTRAL MT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MOST OF MY CWA IN NVA.
WILL DROP POPS DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...THE AVN BRINGS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TO WESTERN
MT...AND PAINTS COPIOUS QPF OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. TOO SOON TO TELL
IF THIS WILL BE ACCURATE...SO WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM. IF THE THURSDAY SHORTWAVE VERIFIES...HIGH TEMPS COULD
DROP 5 TO 10 DEGREES IN THE WEST. MPJ

.EXTENDED...PLAN ON GOING WITH THE ECMWF. MONDAYS 00Z AVN RUN
BROUGHT AN UPPER TROUGH INTO B.C. ON SUN THEN HAD IT MOVING INTO MT
ON MON. PREVIOUS 00Z AVN RUN WAS SLOWER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. IT
BROUGHT THE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE PAC NW ON MON WITH SW FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE AREA. ECMWF RUNS FROM LAST WEEK ARE VERIFYING BETTER THAN
LAST WEEKS AVN RUNS FOR EARLY THIS WEEK. ALSO NCEP PREFERS THE
ECMWF. AND ECMWF IS MORE IN LINE WITH UPPER FLOW FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. SO WILL BE DISCOUNTING 00Z MON AVN RUN WHICH HAD COOLER
AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLANK

.CCF NUMBERS
GTF TB 063/094 063/096 061 14433
    TBBBB 090/055 088/056 090/056 090/056 090 22422111222
CTB TB 058/090 059/092 058 14222
    TBBBB 086/050 085/052 087/052 087/052 087 22311111222
HLN TB 064/093 062/095 060 14633
    TBBBB 090/055 088/057 090/057 090/057 090 23422222222
BZN TB 060/092 060/094 055 14534
    TBBBB 089/050 087/052 089/052 089/052 089 23422222222
WEY TB 055/088 054/090 050 14434
    TBBBB 085/042 082/043 085/043 085/043 085 24433333333
DLN TB 060/090 058/092 055 14534
    TBBBB 087/051 086/053 089/053 089/053 089 24422222222
HVR TB 064/096 064/098 061 14333
    TBBBB 094/055 088/056 091/056 091/056 091 22322111222
LWT TB 060/092 061/094 059 14333
    TBBBB 091/054 087/055 089/055 089/055 089 22422111222=

.TFX...NONE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 15, 2:20 PM MDT, 48 minutes before

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
220 PM MDT MON JUL 15 2002

TIME(MDT)  .....EVENT  LOCATION..... ST   ...EVENT/REMARKS...........
           .....COUNTY LOCATION.....

0540 PM    HELENA                    MT   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK              SOME CAR WINDOWS BROKEN,
                                          TREES DOWN, ELECTRIC
                                          SERVICE DOWN

0540 PM    HELENA                    MT   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK

0540 PM    HELENA                    MT   WIND DAMAGE
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK

0545 PM    HELENA                    MT   0.50 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK              TREES, POWER LINES DOWN,
                                          STREET

0545 PM    HELENA                    MT   70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK

0555 PM    EAST HELENA               MT   1 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK

0555 PM    2 W SILVER CITY           MT   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK

0555 PM    2 W SILVER CITY           MT   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK

0606 PM    TOWNSEND                  MT   0.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   BROADWATER

0606 PM    TOWNSEND                  MT   61 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   BROADWATER

0620 PM    3 SW GREAT FALLS          MT   0.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   CASCADE                        WIND GUST AT WEATHER
                                          STATION

0620 PM    3 SW GREAT FALLS          MT   66 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   CASCADE

0623 PM    5 S GREAT FALLS           MT   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   CASCADE                        REPORTED NATL WX EMPLOYEE

0623 PM    5 S GREAT FALLS           MT   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   CASCADE

0630 PM    5 W TOWNSEND              MT   70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   BROADWATER                     GINGER RAWS STATION

0635 PM    HELENA                    MT   59 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   LEWIS  AND  CLARK              RAWS STATION

0635 PM    TOWNSEND                  MT   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   BROADWATER                     TWO 100 YEAR OLD TREES
                                          DOWN, POWER LINES DOWN

0635 PM    WHITE SULPHUR SPGS        MT   0.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   MEAGHER                        TREE BRANCHES DOWN

0635 PM    WHITE SULPHUR SPGS        MT   75 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   MEAGHER

0700 PM    7 NE HIGHWOOD             MT   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   CHOUTEAU

0700 PM    7 NE HIGHWOOD             MT   45 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   CHOUTEAU

0710 PM    GREAT FALLS               MT   59 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   CASCADE                        DRY MICROBURST TEMP JUMPD
                                          TO

0725 PM    POWER                     MT   1 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   TETON                          0.50 INCH OF RAIN IN 30
                                          MINUTES

0725 PM    POWER                     MT   40 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   TETON

0756 PM    STANFORD                  MT   71 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   JUDITH  BASIN                  ONLY 0.06 INCH PRECIP

0758 PM    HOBSON                    MT   70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   JUDITH  BASIN                  WIND SPEED ESTIMATD. VSBY
                                          NEAR

0801 PM    MOORE                     MT   70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   FERGUS                         VSBY 1/4 DUST, TREE LIMBS
                                          DOWN

0815 PM    WISDOM                    MT   1 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   BEAVERHEAD                     AT LEAST 1 INCH DIA HAIL
                                          SIZE

0817 PM    3 E DENTON                MT   72 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   FERGUS                         EAST OF DENTON DOT SITE

0820 PM    LEWISTOWN                 MT   72 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   FERGUS                         MANY TREE LIMBS DOWN.
                                          SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

0830 PM    FT BENTON                 MT   0.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   CHOUTEAU                       1.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN 20
                                          MINUTES

0830 PM    FT BENTON                 MT   50 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   CHOUTEAU

0835 PM    3 W HILGER                MT   70 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   FERGUS                         WATER TANK BLOWN
                                          OVER...TREE LIMBS DOWN

0900 PM    ROY                       MT   65 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   FERGUS

0903 PM    HAVRE                     MT   60 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   HILL                           HAVRE CITY-COUNTY AIRPORT
                                          ASOS

0904 PM    WISDOM                    MT   0.75 INCH HAIL
07/14/02   BEAVERHEAD

0910 PM    VALENTINE                 MT   64 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   FERGUS

1026 PM    FT BELKNAP                MT   82 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02   BLAINE                         FORT BELKNAP RAWS STATION

NNNN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Great Falls, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 6:03 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Broadwater, Cascade, Lewis and Clark, Meagher	57 min
Jul 14, 6:13 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade	47 min
Jul 14, 6:48 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau	57 min
Jul 14, 6:52 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Cascade, Meagher	38 min
Jul 14, 7:12 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Judith Basin	48 min
Jul 14, 7:36 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau, Teton	54 min
Jul 14, 7:48 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Beaverhead	57 min
Jul 14, 7:55 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau	35 min
Jul 14, 7:59 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Fergus, Judith Basin	61 min
Jul 14, 8:33 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Chouteau, Hill	57 min
Jul 14, 8:43 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Beaverhead	62 min
Jul 14, 8:58 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine, Fergus	62 min
Jul 14, 9:56 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	49 min
Jul 14, 10:25 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Lewis and Clark	50 min
Jul 14, 10:47 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TFX	Blaine	43 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.