Special Marine Warning 21, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
235 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002

CURRENT...88D LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW SPOTTY -RA ACROSS MAINLY THE
COASTAL COUNTIES AND THE E GULF. EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLD
TSTSM OVER CHARLOTTE AND LEE AND ADJACENT GULF MOVING SLOWLY NE.

--SHORT TERM--
UPPER LEVEL TROF JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FA OVER THE CENT GULF WILL
STICK AROUND FOR ANOTHER DAY TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY WED. MODELS AGREE ON BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER
DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE N 1/2 OF THE FA TODAY. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 70-
80% POPS THERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. MAY SHAVE BACK POPS
TO 50-60% SW FA WHERE MODELS SHOW LOWER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SSW FLOW
TYPICALLY HARD TO PIN TIMING OF PRECIP...AND WILL KEEP GENERIC
WORDING. LOW LEVEL WINDS BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SSE BY WED...AND ESE
THURS AS WEAK DEEP LAYER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD FROM THE EAST OVER THE
W ATLC. THIS WOULD CHANGE TIMING OF CONVECTION BACK TOWARD
AFTN/EVENING...ESPEC BY THURS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE A LITTLE LOWER
WED...AND GUIDANCE SHOWS POPS DROPPING BACK TO 30-40%. WILL GO 30-50%
POPS BOTH WED AND THURS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S TODAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND WIDE SPREAD PRECIP. EXPECT MORE
NORMAL MAXES BY WED AND THURS. GUIDANCE MIN TEMPS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH
WED NIGHT GIVEN MORE ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

--EXTENDED--
AVN AND OLD MRF RUN SHOW ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH
WITH CHC TO POSSIBLY LIKELY AFTN AND EVENING RAIN CHCS FRI THROUGH
MON. NEAR CLIMO TEMPS. LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT EXTENDED EXPECTED.

--MARINE--
NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS ESE FLOW RETURNS...
COULD GET SURGE IN WIND SPEEDS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT
OVER THE E GULF...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL IF SPEEDS WILL BE ABOVE 15
KTS.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 087/068 090/067 8653
TPA 087/071 090/070 8543
GIF 088/070 091/069 7543
SRQ 087/071 090/070 7543
FMY 089/073 092/070 5444=

.TBW...NONE.

MORALES

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-181400-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
545 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2002

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY...

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RAIN TO CONTINUOUSLY REDEVELOP OVER THE SAME AREA...WHICH COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA NORTHWARD.

OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAS
ESTIMATED LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...MAINLY OVER
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND SUMTER COUNTIES. THEREFORE...DUE TO THE
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY
AREA NORTHWARD...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH MORE RAINFALL TO PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING...POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SOME ROADWAYS.
REMEMBER TO AVOID DRIVING THROUGH ANY WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTHS.

MORALES