Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
432 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

VERY BUSY NIGHT AHEAD...SO WILL BE BRIEF. SPC JUST ISSUED SEVERE
TSTM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ZONES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ADJUSTED TO
REFLECT THIS AND HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT OUT. REST OF PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW.
------------------------------------------------------------------

THE SQUALL LINE LOOKS A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME SIGNS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE.
OUR 18Z SOUNDING HAD THE LI DROP TO -2...CAPE IS ONLY 190...BUT
THAT IS MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE 12Z RUN.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND THE SHARP LINE OF COLD
CLOUD TOPS LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED.  THIS COULD MEAN THAT WE
WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE RAIN THAN THE 1 INCH PLUS ORIGINALLY
ANTICIPATED.  THE FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD AND I WILL CONTINUE IT
THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SENSORS IN THE PANHANDLE HAVE TIDES RUNNING
OVER 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL.  THAT COULD TRANSLATE TO EVEN HIGHER
NUMBERS ALONG OUR COAST CONSIDERING THE WIDER SHELF...EKMAN
TRANSPORTS AHEAD OF THE LINE AND WATER SLOSHING UP WITH THE SQUALL
LINE ITSELF.  LUCKILY WE WILL BE AT A LOW TIDE THIS AFTERNOON.  IF
THE SQUALL SLOWS THOUGH...IT COULD GET A LITTLE DICEY THIS
EVENING. RIGHT NOW WE ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL
AND THAT IS RISING RELATIVELY FAST.

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTS OUT TONIGHT
AND IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER TROUGH BY THURSDAY.  LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM.  WITH THIS SURFACE LOW
OCCLUDING...WHICH IS NOT SOMETHING WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT TOO MUCH
DOWN HERE...AND THE NEXT ONE DROPPING SOUTH BY THURSDAY...THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY.  IN FACT IT WILL
EVEN BACK AROUND TO SOUTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY.  SO LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND DONT EXPECT ANY BIG DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST TIL THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KNOTS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
COASTAL AREA.  WE WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE LINE SO SCA
WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS STILL LOOKS VALID.  ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...AFTER MIDNIGHT WE WILL LIKELY NEED A HEAVY SURF
ADVISORY.  THE EVENING SHIFT WILL LIKELY HAVE THEIR HANDS FULL WITH
WEATHER TONIGHT...SO I WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE ADVISORY WITH
THIS PACKAGE EVEN THOUGH WE WILL NOT SEE PROBLEMS TIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

EXTENDED FORECAST(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO BRING A COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW
FOR THE BULK OF THE PERIOD BEFORE RIDGING EAST-WEST WITH A MORE NE
FLOW AND SOME MODERATING TEMPS/MOISTURE LATE SUN INTO MONDAY. THE
NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO SHAPE UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WEST
GULF TUE BUT EXPECT THIS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT TO CWFA DURING THE
END OF THIS PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS

BKV 065/072 049/073 +000
TPA 066/073 059/072 +100
GIF 065/077 057/074 +200
SRQ 066/075 059/074 +200
FMY 068/077 060/076 9302

.TBW...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT FOR COASTAL ZONES.
    ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT FOR BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE
       RIVER OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
    ...FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT CHARLOTTE LEE AND
       HIGHLANDS
    ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY ALL GULF COASTAL AREAS.

SOBIEN/R. RUDE/JCM

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055-056-060>062-065-311615-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
515 AM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY TONIGHT.  A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE EASTERN
GULF WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY IN THE
EVENING...THEN PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LATER IN THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF NEW YEARS DAY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG WINDS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE
DAY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO
7 TO 10 FEET. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH GALE FORCE STRENGTH...35 TO 45
KNOTS...BY THIS EVENING.

FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS...TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED ABOVE
NORMAL BY AT LEAST 2 TO 3 FEET FOR LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR
BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY EVENING...WHICH COINCIDES WITH
THE TIME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.  A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

FINALLY...RESIDENTS LIVING NEAR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL ALSO
NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING WATER LEVELS...GIVEN THE THREAT FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE PAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD STAGE OR ABOVE...AND
MANY OTHERS ARE NEAR FLOOD LEVEL. THEREFORE...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO FLOOD...AND
AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS ON RIVERS ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STAY TUNED THE LATEST STATMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
AND LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED BY LATER TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

MORALES/DEESE

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055-056-060>062-065-010400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
430 PM EST TUE DEC 31 2002

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS UNTIL 10 PM THIS NEW YEARS EVE...

MANATEE...CHARLOTTE...LEE...PINELLAS...DE SOTO...HARDEE...POLK...
HERNANDO...SARASOTA...HILLSBOROUGH...CITRUS...LEVY...SUMTER AND
PASCO.

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZEPHYRHILLS...WINTER HAVEN...VENICE...
TAMPA...SPRING HILL...SARASOTA...PUNTA GORDA...PORT CHARLOTTE...NEW
PORT RICHEY...LAKELAND...INVERNESS...FORT MYERS...CLEARWATER...
CHIEFLAND...CAPE CORAL...BROOKSVILLE...BRANDON...BRADENTON...BARTOW
AND ARCADIA.

..THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...AND THIS EVENING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM CEDAR KEY SOUTH THROUGH THE TAMPA BAY REGION
TO FORT MYERS AND POINTS INLAND.

THESE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS...AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 10 FEET.
WIND GUSTS MAY REACH GALE FORCE STRENGTH... OVER 35 KNOTS...BY THIS
EVENING.

FOR COASTAL RESIDENTS...TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED ABOVE
NORMAL BY AT LEAST 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL
HIGH TIDES WILL GENERALLY OCCUR BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT NEW YEARS
EVENING...WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE TIME SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.

FINALLY...RESIDENTS LIVING NEAR AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS WILL ALSO
NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING WATER LEVELS...GIVEN THE THREAT FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE PAST FEW RAINFALL EVENTS
HAVE ALREADY PUSHED SEVERAL RIVERS TO FLOOD STAGE OR ABOVE...AND
MANY OTHERS ARE NEAR FLOOD LEVEL. THEREFORE...ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE MORE RIVERS AND STREAMS TO FLOOD...AND
AGGRAVATE FLOODING PROBLEMS ON RIVERS ALREADY ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

STAY TUNED THE LATEST STATMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW