Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN
418 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2002

...CORRECTED HEAVY SURF ADVISORY AREA IN WARNING SECTION...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT IS RACING EASTWARD ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO
AS EVIDENT BY THIN LINE OF CLOUDS SEEN ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES.  LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARED UP AHEAD OF FRONT AS IT APPROACHED LOOP
CURRENT AND APPEARS THAT THEY WILL MOVE ONSHORE BEFORE 12Z FROM ABOUT
SARASOTA COUNTY NORTH.  HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO WEAKEN SOME AS
THEY APPROACH COAST THANKS TO COOL GULF WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR
SHORE.

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING AND BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON
BRINGING AN END TO ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  SKIES
SHOULD BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BEHIND FRONT AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER
AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA ON BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
PENINSULA SATURDAY AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.  WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SOMEWHAT GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE.  SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SUNNY AND PLEASANT
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE 60S FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
RATHER CHILLY NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA AS FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.  ON SUNDAY THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S.

EXTENDED (MON-THU)...
NEW AVN/MRF SHOWS A RAPID WARMUP MON WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH
MOISTURE.  MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO FILL
IN...AND THE AVN/MRF DEPICT WHAT APPEARS TO BE WARM FRONTOGENESIS
AND RAIN/SHOWERS ESP N TUE MORNING.  STRENGTHENING UPPER SYSTEM
TRAVERSING THE MS/TN VALLEY WILL DEVELOP A SFC LOW OVER MS/AL WHICH
WILL INTENSIFY WHILE TRACKING NE TOWARD THE MID ATLC REGION CMAS EVE
INTO CMAS MORNING.  IF SOLUTION IS CORRECT...FRONT WILL CROSS CWFA
BY CMAS MORNING LEAVING A BREEZY AND COOLER AFTN.  GIVEN FAST MOVING
TRENDS OF LATE WILL LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.  HOWEVER...WILL BUMP
TEMPS 5-8 DEGREES (RATHER THAN 10+) IN CASE LATER RUNS CHANGE THEIR
TUNE.  WILL ADJUST PCPN TIMING ACCORDINGLY.

MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS EARLY SHIFT TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
BY AFTERNOON.  WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS VEERING
AROUND TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  NEXT
STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ON TUESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
TRICKY FCST TODAY.  PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SFC FRONT NOT TOO FAR BEHIND.  WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK REALLY
CRANK JUST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY THIS AFTN...UP TO 40 KT AT 900
MB...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTH.  QUICK DISPERSION INDEX
CALCULATION PUSHED VALUES TOWARDS 80 IN THESE AREAS...AND WILL HOIST
RED FLAG FOR THIS REASON.  ON SAT...RH WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW 35
PERCENT JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BUT FINAL DURATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW
WARM IT GETS.  DEWPOINTS IN AR/MO ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID M 20S...AND
EXPECT THOSE TO TURN THE CORNER AND HEAD TOWARD S GA/N FL OVERNIGHT.
WILL ISSUE WATCH FOR NOW AND EVALUATE TRENDS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 068/032 067/031 4000
TPA 070/044 066/045 6000
GIF 070/044 067/044 6000
SRQ 071/044 066/044 6000
FMY 073/047 070/048 6000

.TBW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BONITA SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
    ...HEAVY SURF ADVISORY BONITA SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER.
    ...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LEVY...CITRUS...HERNANDO...SUMTER...
       PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...MANATEE...HARDEE
       AND NORTHERN HALF OF HIGHLANDS.
    ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES SATURDAY.

PRC/BSG

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FOR LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
610 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...
...GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE MARINE HAZARDS TODAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
PRECEDED AND ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF LINE FROM TAMPA TO
ORLANDO AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS.  THESE WINDS WILL
PRODUCE SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WITH BAY AND INLAND WATER WAYS BECOMING
ROUGH.  FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO
POSTPONE TRIPS TODAY UNTIL WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING
NORTH OF TAMPA BAY...

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LEVY...CITRUS...SUMTER...AND HERNANDO COUNTIES BY EARLY SATURDAY AND
AGAIN SUNDAY MORNING...WITH THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY
SEEING TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING.  IN ADDITION...LIGHT WINDS MAY
SUPPORT SOME FROST FORMATION AS WELL.

FREEZE WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
SOME AREAS NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.  RESIDENTS MAY NEED TO COVER OR MOVE
INDOORS ANY COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS LATER TODAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

PRC/BSG

FLZ043-048>051-055-201215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
622 AM EST FRI DEC 20 2002

...SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH TAMPA BAY AND VICINITY
FOR THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE...
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH...WILL AFFECT PINELLAS PARK...SAINT PETERSBURG...
TAMPA...BRANDON...BRADENTON...AND BROOKSVILLE...UNTIL 715 AM EST.
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL OCCUR. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.  CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE
AFTER 730 AM.
&&
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL.  IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...BE ALERT
TO SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY.  REMEMBER TO MAINTAIN A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN VEHICLES.

GOLDSMITH