Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
256 PM EDT WED OCT 23 2002

CORRECTED TIME IN TIME/DAY LINE

CURRENT...MOSTLY SUNNY ATTM BUT EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE CORNER OF THE
CWFA. WINDS LIGHT MOSTLY EAST WITH A SE BREEZE ALONG OUR SW COAST.

TONIGHT-SAT...FEEL AVN MAY BE GOING OVERBOARD BUT IT HAS TRACKED THE
2 WEAK SHORT WAVES TROUGHS/ CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST/ BETTER
AND IS SLOWER AND MORE REASONABLE WITH WEAK SURFACE FEATURE TRACKING
OVER CENTRAL/EAST GULF. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. OLD
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN FL LIFTS NORTH AS SURFACE RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO CENTRAL FL AS FIRST S/W TROUGH MOVES TOWARD AND OVER
WEST FL COAST THU MORNING...DAMPENING OUT SOME WITH UPPER RIDGE
PARKED TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH
FOR SOME POSSIBLE STRONG STORMS IN THE MORNING AND WILL CONFER WITH
THE ON COMING SHIFT ABOUT THE NEED FOR A MORE DEFINITE STATEMENT.
WILL KEEP POPS 50 NORTH...40 CENTRAL AND 30 SOUTH W/O TIMING DURING
THU AND THEN TRIM POPS BACK SOME GOING INTO THU NIGHT. SECOND S/W
TROUGH...WHILE THE STRONGER ONE NOW...IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE SAME
TRACK AND COME ACROSS OUR NORTH AND CENTRAL CWFA LATE THU NIGHT OR
EARLY FRIDAY ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW. AGAIN...WITH RIDGE TO OUR
SOUTH...SYSTEM WEAKENS AND WILL KEEPS POPS 40 TO 20 FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CONTINUE INTO LATE FRI/EARLY
SAT BEFORE CLEARING SOME. TEMPS REMAIN WARM AND WILL BLEND AVN/ETA
MOS AND GO ON THE HIGH SIDE.

MARINE(TONIGHT-MON)...NO PROBLEMS WITH WINDS 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH
PERIOD AS WINDS COME ALL THE WAY AROUND AS SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH.

SUN-WED...NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FL SATURDAY AND STALLS THERE
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BRIDGING THE FRONT AND BECOMING
EASTERLY. FRONT LIFTS NORTH MONDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
GULF TUESDAY AND REACHES NORTH BY DURING WEDNESDAY. WITH THE CWFA
REMAINING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL KEEPS TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO
ALONG WITH LOW POPS AND PARTLY CLOUDY.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
BKV 066/084 067/085 066 4544
TPA 071/085 072/086 071 4443
GIF 069/086 069/087 070 4443
SRQ 070/086 070/086 070 3433
FMY 071/087 071/087 070 3323

.TBW...NONE.

09/RKR

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-231300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
555 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER ATMOSPHERIC DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
THE PROSPECTS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA LATER
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 2 TO 3 PM
...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 MPH AND TEMPORARY DOWNPOURS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
WILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.