Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
250 PM EDT MON MAY 27 2002

AS WE HAVE SEEN THIS AFTN...ALL IT TAKES IN THIS NEBULOUS PATTERN IS
FOR BOUNDARIES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO SET THE STAGE FOR WHERE
THE PCPN WILL DEVELOP.  SUNDAY AFTN MODEL RUNS INDICATED THAT THE
NATURE COAST WOULD BE LAST TO GO...BUT HERE WE ARE WITH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION OFF THE FIRST (NE FL) COAST SENDING BOUNDARIES AND HENCE
THE MOST AREAL COVERAGE INTO SUMTER/HERNANDO AND POINTS N.

WITH THAT IN MIND...AND GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LEAVING SOME
DEGREE OF TROUGHING OVER THE CWFA THROUGH THE WEEK...EXPECT SEASONAL
TEMPS WITH SOME MAINLY AFTN/EVE PCPN EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE IN SOME DISAGREEMENT AGAIN THIS AFTN.  FIRST...NONE HAVE
THE CONVECTIVE BURST OFF THE NE FL COAST...BUT ALL SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE BAHAMAS MOISTURE FAIRLY WELL.  AS BEFORE...IM
LEANING TOWARD THE ETA EARLY ON GIVEN ITS CONSISTENCY.  THE NGM
HAS SUDDENLY SHIFTED TO A MOIST SOLUTION...TOSSING BANDS OF HIGH RH
AND VERTICAL LIFT FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO SE FL...EXTENDING NW TO THE
CWFA.  APPEARS CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IS CONTAMINATING THE MODEL...AND
WILL DISREGARD.

THE AVN IS MORE IN LINE THIS AFTN...THOUGH IT APPEARS TO THROW A BIT
TOO MUCH MOISTURE ACROSS N FL TUE/WED...INCLUDING THE N SUNCOAST.
HOWEVER...THE IDEA OF PINWHEELING UPPER SYSTEM (THOUGH PERHAPS NOT
QUITE AS VIGOROUS BY DAY 5) RETURNING SOME DEEP MOISTURE TO THE
AREA ON NW FLOW IS PLAUSIBLE FOR DAYS 4 AND BEYOND.

SHORT TERM:  LOOKS LIKE CENTRAL AND SW CORNER WILL CLEAR BY THE
TIME PACKAGE IS SENT...SO WILL DROP PCPN HERE.  WILL DECIDE LAST
MINUTE ABOUT CENTRAL...AND HOLD ONTO A MENTION FROM PASCO-N.  FOR
TUE...THOUGH ETAS DRYING (PCP WATER DOWN NEAR 1 INCH) LOOKS A TAD
OVERDONE...I LIKE THE IDEA OF MUCH OF THE CWFA BEING WHERE S
CENTRAL FL IS TODAY (MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS)...AND WILL COMPROMISE
WITH ISOLD PCPN.  BY WED...AXIS OF H50 TROUGH BEGINS TO NUDGE BACK
ACROSS THE PENINSULA FROM NE-SW...AND SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SHOULD EASE BACK IN...SO WILL UP CHANCES A BIT.

EXTENDED:  NO SENSE IN GETTING CUTE AT THIS POINT AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY.   WILL CONTINUE WITH SCT PCPN AND ONLY USE
AFTN WORDING FOR INTERIOR...AS RETURNING MOISTURE ON WSW FLOW COULD
THREATEN THE COASTAL COS AT ANY TIME.  MRF AND AVN EXTRAPOLATION
HINTING AT RISING HEIGHTS AND PERHAPS BACKING WINDS SUN/MON...BUT
PREFER TO BROAD BRUSH AND WAIT UNTIL WE CAN ZERO IN ON FINAL
MOVEMENT/LOCATION OF UPPER TROUGH.

FIRE WX:  WILL HANG ONTO DISPERSION FLAG FOR THE N SUNCOAST THIS
AFTN...EVEN THOUGH RAINS SHOULD KNOCK DOWN THE MIXING (AND WINDS)
IN AN HOUR OR SO.  DRYING ON TUESDAY WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER GOOD
MIXING DAY...THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT NE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO RELAX.

MARINE:  EVENING SURGE HAS BEEN ON THE CAUTION LINE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  EXPECT PERHAPS 15 KT THROUGH MIDNIGHT BUT NO MORE
TONIGHT...AND WITH LESS TRAFFIC WILL ELECT TO LEAVE HIGHLITES
OUT.  WIND FCST GETS ALL GUMMED UP LATER WED THROUGH THU AS SFC LOW
SETS UP SOMEWHERE OVER THE PENINSULA.  BEST GUESS IS THE CENTER
WILL BE JUST N OF THE CWFA...PROVIDING A TURN TO A WEST FLOW TO END
THE WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 065/090 066/088 2213
TPA 071/089 072/088 1213
GIF 070/088 071/088 1213
SRQ 069/088 071/087 1212
FMY 070/090 072/090 1213

.TBW...RED FLAG WARNING FOR PASCO SUMTER HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY
       COUNTIES THROUGH SUNSET TODAY.
    ...FIRE WX WATCH TUESDAY PASCO...HERNANDO...SUMTER...CITRUS...
       AND LEVY COUNTIES.

88/GOLDSMITH