Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Tampa Bay, FL
NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2002, 7:28 PM EDT for Polk County, Florida. It was in force for 32 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 18, 2002, 7:28 PM EDT (23:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 18, 2002, 8:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 32 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tampa Bay, FL
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Polk County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 7:35 PM EDT | Thunderstorm Wind | Lakeland, FL | Emergency Management reported numerous trees down in the Lakeland Heights subdivision. |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1203 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -48 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 814 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 12 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 49 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
469 WUUS52 KTBW 182328 SVRTBW FLC105-190000- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 727 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 800 PM EDT * AT 727 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LAKELAND...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS WEST OF... LAKELAND HIGHLANDS. WINSTON. MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL... TORRENTIAL RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT USE ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES OR TELEPHONES. && LAT...LON 2804 8204 2787 8196 2796 8179 2817 8191 $$ 23
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 2:35 PM EDT, 4 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 2:35 PM EDT, 4 hours 53 minutes before
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 235 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2002 CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D RETURNS DEPICT DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG BOTH EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LAPS SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS COVERING THE FA...SO AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES EXPECT TO SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR AS MESO-SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTION TAKE PLACE. OVERALL STEERING FLOW IS WEAK BUT STILL FROM A SE-SLY DIRECTION...SO WILL AGAIN KEEP HIGHEST POPS (30%) ALONG MY COASTAL ZONES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM(TON-WED)...MODEL TREND CONTINUE TO BE QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS...ALTHOUGH MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER EVER SO SLIGHTLY WITH RESPECT TO PWS AND THE EXACT POSITION OF SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN DEALING WITH THE PWS THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (PWS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6) WHICH IN TURN ARE REFLECTED IN THE BELOW CLIMO POPS ADVERTISED BY GUIDANCE. SEEING THAT THE TREND FOR LOWER PWS HAS YET TO REALLY MATERIALIZE...AND I DONT SEE WHERE IT WILL COME ON THE CURRENT WV LOOP...WILL OPT TO KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO LEVEL (50%) COASTAL ZONES...AND 40% INTERIOR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION BEING THE AFTERNOON SEA/LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR...SO WILL USE A BLEND. EXTENDED(THURS-SUN)...LATEST AVN SOLUTION CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SERN U.S. AND FL DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A RENEWED SFC HIGH CENTER BUILDING IN ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC. LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE PROFILES AND AN EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NO TEMPERATURE CHANGES WITH READINGS CONTINUING AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO-LEVELS. MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTING UP JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE WILL PROVIDE TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. EXPECT LIGHT SE-SLY WINDS IN THE 5-10 KNOT RANGE WITH SLIGHT SEAS AND A DAILY SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED. FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. PRELIMINARY #S BKV 071/092 071/091 3535 TPA 075/092 075/090 3535 GIF 074/093 074/093 2424 SRQ 074/090 074/090 3535 FMY 074/092 074/092 3535 .TBW...NONE. MCMICHAEL
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.