Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
258 PM EDT SAT AUG 17 2002

CURRENTLY...SUFFICIENT HEATING AND INSTABILITY RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MY INTERIOR AND SWRN MOST ZONES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS SHOW THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE SLOWLY DEVELOPING (MOST EVIDENT NORTH OF TAMPA) AND
AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUE WE SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOP
ON IT. SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL AGAIN FAVOR BEST COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION OVER MY COASTAL ZONES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...SO WILL WORD
FOR HIGHEST POPS (CHANCE CATEGORY) AND TAPER BACK TOWARD INTERIOR
ZONES FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONVECTION SHOULD AGAIN WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...WITH SKIES BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM(TON-TUES)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT WITH
THEIR INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...SO AGAIN WILL
USE A BLEND. UPPER RIDGE NEAR KJAX THIS AFTERNOON WELL REMAIN IN
CONTROL AS IT MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO THE PANHANDLE REGION BY MONDAY...
THEN TO NEAR THE LA/MS BORDERS BY TUESDAY AS WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE
BY TO THE NORTH OF IT. ATTENDANT SURFACE HIGH NEAR THE FL/GA BORDERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN DRIFT SOUTH TO THE N-CENTRAL
PENINSULA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE SERN
U.S.. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VARYING AMOUNTS OF DRYING ALOFT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT MODEL TIME HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SHOW ADEQUATE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO SUPPORT DIURNAL SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC RIDGE AXIS POSITION JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA WILL KEEP AN E-SELY STEERING FLOW IN
PLACE...SO WILL WORD FOR HIGHEST POP (50%) COASTAL ZONES...AND 40%
INTERIOR EACH DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS HAVE BEEN DOING QUITE WELL THE LAST
FEW DAYS...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEM.

EXTENDED(WED-SAT)...LATEST AVN SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO ONGOING
PATTERN AND DEPICTS LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S AND FL THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT SFC HIGH
ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SCATTERED SEA/
LAKE BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE N-
CENTRAL PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT SELY
WIND FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST EACH AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY #S
BKV 072/092 072/091 2525
TPA 077/091 076/090 2525
GIF 076/094 075/093 2424
SRQ 075/091 075/090 2525
FMY 075/093 075/092 2525

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL