Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
134 PM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88D RETURNS SHOW CONVECTION ALREADY
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE FA MAINLY INTERIOR ZONES...ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING ALONG COASTAL ZONES AS WELL. MSAS ANALYSIS
DEPICTS INVERTED SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA EXTENDING
SW-NE FROM NEAR KSRQ TO THE CAPE. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH MESO-SCALE
BNDRY INTERACTIONS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON WITH BEST AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BECOMING
FOCUSED OVER COASTAL ZONES INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY THE STEERING FLOW IS A BIT STRONGER...SO EXPECT CONVECTION
TO END A BIT SOONER TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES W-NWWD INTO THE GULF.

SHORT TERM(TON-SUN)...MODELS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND DEPICT ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES (MAINLY MOISTURE PROFILES)
OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC IS PROGD TO
BUILD WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE AND SERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ATTENDANT WESTERN ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
REMAINING FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE ENTIRE FA WITH AN E-SELY WIND FLOW
FAVORING LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION EACH DAY.

IN THE INTERIM THOUGH SOME SUBTLE CHANGES WILL TAKE PLACE AS DRIER
MID LEVEL AIR MOVES W-NWWD INTO THE FA ON BACK SIDE OF SFC TROUGH
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FA. THIS DRIER AIR (PWS DROPPING OFF BY
ABOUT 1/2 INCH) AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO LOWER POP CHANCES SOME ON FRIDAY AND INTO
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IN TIME I BELIEVE GUIDANCE POPS ARE
A BIT TO LOW...SO WILL FORECAST POPS (40%) FOR BOTH DAYS.

BY LATER ON SATURDAY ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE MOVING W-NW ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN BUT ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE MINIMAL AS IT
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH...BUT DEPTH OF MOISTURE DOES BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE FA...SO WILL BRING POPS BACK TO CLIMO-LEVELS
(50%) FOR SUNDAY. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND FOR THE
MOST PART ACCEPTED.

EXTENDED(MON-THURS)...LATEST AVN DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STALLING OUT
OVER THE SERN U.S. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS IT RUNS INTO THE DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING. SFC RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DEEP E-SELY WIND FLOW WHICH WILL FAVOR CLIMO
POPS THROUGHOUT MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
NO REAL CHANGES EXPECTED.

MARINE...FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST SHAPING UP AS SELY WIND
FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DAILY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE NEAR SHORE EACH AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS ANTICIPATED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

PRELIMINARY CCF #S
BKV 072/092 071/092 3424
TPA 075/092 075/092 3424
GIF 074/092 075/093 3424
SRQ 074/091 074/091 3424
FMY 074/092 075/092 3424

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-152330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1119 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ALONG WITH LATE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING
OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW...THE BEST
CONCENTRATION AND INTENSITY OF STORMS WILL RESIDE OVER COASTAL
LOCATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNSET.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH. IN ADDITION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
INTERSECTIONS.

WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG
APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE
USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

MARINERS OPERATING ON TAMPA BAY...THE INLAND WATER WAYS OR THE
ADJACENT GULF SHOULD BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON. IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...SEEK
A SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR ANY
UPDATES AND OR WARNINGS SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

MCMICHAEL