Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Issued

Aug 14, 2002, 4:55 PM EDT (20:55 UTC)

Expired

Aug 14, 2002, 5:30 PM EDT

In force

35 min

Issued by

NWS Tampa Bay, FL

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Manatee County, FL, Sarasota County, FL

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

717 
WUUS52 KTBW 142055
SVRTBW
FLC081-115-142130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
455 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
  NORTHERN SARASOTA COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 530 PM EDT

* AT 455 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...OVER
  NORTHERN SARASOTA COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...
  LAKEWOOD RANCH.
  EASTERN BRADENTON.
  FRUITVILLE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTAIN WIND GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR HIGHER...AND
HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES OR LARGER. MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

&&

LAT...LON 2726 8247 2726 8229 2750 8235 2750 8252

$$

25

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 14, 1:40 PM EDT, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
140 PM EDT WED AUG 14 2002

CURRENTLY...SCT SHOWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE ECENT
AND SE FL MOVING NW TOWARD THE INTERIOR FA. WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
CAN BE SEE OVER LEVY AND CITRUS...BUT GENERALLY NOT EVIDENT IN OBS OR
SATELLTE YET REST OF THE AREA. BEST COVERGENCE MAY BE CONFINED TO
IMMEDIATE COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING...ESPEC
S OF TPA. N OF TPA...FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY...WHICH WILL ALLOW WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. EASTERLY TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CENT BAHAMAS MOVING WNW TOWARD SE FL.

--FCST DISCUSSION--
BIG QUESTION IS HOW DRY WILL IT GET BEHIND WEAK TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER BAHAMAS? ALL MODELS SHOW THE AXIS OF THE WAVE INTO S
FL TONIGHT...CENT FL THURS MORNING AND INTO THE N FA THURS AFTN. ETA
THE MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE DRYING BEHIND THE WAVE LATER THURS
THROUGH EARLY FRI. ETA STARTS VERY DRY ON FRI WITH MRHS BELOW 50%...
BUT INCREASES MOISTURE DURING THE DAY FROM THE SE. A RETURN BACK TO
MORE UNIFORM/NORMAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SAT. LOW LEVEL WINDS SE THRU
AT LEAST FRI WITH A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS OVER N FL/S GA. BY SAT...
AVN TRIES TO BACK WINDS TO MORE EASTERLY. GUIDANCE GENERALLY NOT
INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PENETRATION OF THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE EACH AFTN...BUT STILL THINK IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES WILL GET A
LATE DAY ONE. THIS WILL HELP ENHANCE LATE AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS RIGHT
AT THE COAST.

WILL STICK CLOSE TO TIMING OF THE EASTERLY WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE AND
THUS GO AROUND 40-50% POP MUCH OF THE FA THURSDAY...AND ARND 30% FRI
WITH SOME DRYING BEHIND WAVE. MOISTURE QUICKLY RETURNS FROM THE SE
LATER FRI AND SAT...AND WILL GO BACK TO 40-50% POPS.

--EXTENDED--
SEEMS ATMOSPHERE LOCKED INTO ESE FLOW PATTERN WITH DEEP LAYER RIDGE
AXIS OVER N FL/S GA. COULD BE MORE EASTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA SUN THROUGH WED...BUT TIMING IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WILL
LEAVE SCT AFTN/EVENING POPS WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

--MARINE--
NO HIGHLIGHTS OR MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED. PRECIP TIMING WILL BE
MAINLY LATE AFTN AND EVENING.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 070/091 071/091 3524
TPA 075/091 075/091 3423
GIF 073/091 073/092 2423
SRQ 073/091 073/091 3423
FMY 073/091 073/092 3423=

.TBW...NONE.

MORALES

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.