Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
301 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2002

CURRENTLY...SKIES PARTLY SUNNY EXCEPT WHERE TSTMS HAVE FIRED OFF
OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWFA AND ALSO THE FAR
NORTH END. TEMPS UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. LIGHT WINDS ARE STARTING TO
SHIFT TO ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST.

FORECAST...MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT BUT AVN SEEMS TO BE
HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND MOISTURE FIELDS BETTER SO
WILL USE THAT AS THE BASIS OF FORECAST. UPPER LOW NEAR THE FLORIDA
KEYS THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE NORTHWEST/ ACROSS OUR GULF WATERS/
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING THE FL PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WED. ASSOCIATED PVA AND INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG EAST SIDE OF
UPPER LOW SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE PCPN ODDS TUESDAY BUT WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH OF OUR CWFA AMD THE UPPER LOW MOVING AWAY
WILL KEEP POPS AT 50 TUESDAY WITH 30 INTO THE EVENING. UPPER LOW
BECOMES STATIONARY AND ELONGATES/ NE-SW/ ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT FOR POPS IN THE
40/50 PERCENT RANGE WED & THU. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE NORTH
END OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT VARIABLE FLOW DOMINATED BY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES...RIDGE AXIS
REACHES SOUTHERN FLORIDA BY THURSDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
WEST AND SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL SHIFT TIMING OF PCPN FROM AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TO...MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON COAST AND AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING INLAND AND SOUTH. MOS TEMP GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BUT AGAIN WILL LEAN TOWARD MAV.
     GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD...UPPER TROUGHINESS CONTINUES
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AS SURFACE RIDGE STAYS TO OUR SOUTH AND A
FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. I WILL KEEP ZONES PARTLY CLOUDY
WITH CHC PCPN AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS.

MARINE...AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHWARD OVER GULF
WATERS VARIABLE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEAS BREEZES WILL GIVE WAY TO
A MORE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALTHOUGH REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10KT.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 070/091 070/090 3534
TPA 078/091 077/091 3534
GIF 076/093 075/093 3534
SRQ 075/091 074/090 3534
FMY 075/092 075/092 3535

.TBW...NONE.

09/RKR

MARINE LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
316 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....MARINE SUBZONE....   GMZ  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ......MARINE ZONE......

0358 PM    CHARLOTTE HARBOR          856  40 KT MARINE TSTM WIND
07/29/02   BONITA BCH-ENGLWD 20NM         REPORTED BY PUNTA GORDA
                                          ASOS KPGD.

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN  FL
358 PM EDT MON JUL 29 2002

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0333 PM    PORT CHARLOTTE            FL   WIND DAMAGE
07/29/02   CHARLOTTE                      MULTIPLE LARGE TREE LIMBS
                                          DOWN AND SEVERAL BUSINESSES
                                          HAD SIGNS BLOWN DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY STORM SPOTTER.

0340 PM    NORTH PORT                FL   WIND DAMAGE
07/29/02   SARASOTA                       TREES BLOWN DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY STORM SPOTTER.

DS