Severe Thunderstorm Warning 42, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
222 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2002

CURRENTLY...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE A BIT FASTER IN FORMING THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND 88D RETURNS ALREADY SHOW AN
EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION ON THE BOUNDARY FROM THE FORT MYERS
NORTH TO SARASOTA...WITH OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES. 18Z KTBW ROAB AND MODEL LAPS SOUNDING DATA SHOWS FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES (COOL 50H TEMPS -8C AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES) SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVLPMT
ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG OR
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
BASED ON THIS WILL ADVERTISE SCATTERED EVENING POPS IN ALL ZONES AND
WORD FOR SOME STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

SHORT TERM (TON-MON)...MODELS AGAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE
ANOTHER...AND SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN WILL
WEAKEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND INTO THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL MEANDER ABOUT THROUGH THE
PERIOD PROVIDING A LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW FOR DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
ALONG BOTH COAST. MOISTURE REMAINS THE SAME THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN
A SUBLTE DECREASE IS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA ON SUNDAY AS SOME
OF THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WORKS ITS WAY WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC AS
NOTED ON WV LOOP. AS FAR AS POPS GO...WILL KEEP THEM IN THE CLIMO
RANGE (50%) FOR SATURDAY...THEN WILL DECREASE THEM SLIGHTLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY LOWER PWS AND
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THESE
AREAS. BY MONDAY FA WILL COME UNDER THE MORE FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE...SO WILL INCREASE POPS BACK TO CLIMO ALL ZONES. MAV/
FWC/MET TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE...SO WILL USE A BLEND IN MOST ZONES.

EXTENDED...(TUE-FRI)...UPPER AND SFC RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON SEA/LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...NO REAL CHANGES EXPECTED. LIGHT SE-SLY FLOW WITH DAILY
AFTERNOON ONSHORE SEA BREEZES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK. MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF TSTMS...
OTHERWISE NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY CCF #S
BKV 072/093 072/092 2423
TPA 076/092 076/091 2423
GIF 075/095 076/094 2424
SRQ 075/090 075/091 2423
FMY 076/092 076/092 2423

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-262330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1113 AM EDT FRI JUL 26 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND  EVENING SOME POSSIBLY
   STRONG...

DAYTIME HEATING...ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...GOOD INSTABILITY
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL
AS THE PONDING OF WATERS ON ROADWAYS AND INTERSECTIONS.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE PRESENCE
OF COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG OR SEVERE WHICH MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF
THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT
UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

MCMICHAEL