Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 25 2002

CURRENTLY...ORIENTATION OF SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE N-CENTRAL
PENINSULA IS ALLOWING THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND FROM
HERNANDO COUNTY NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE SELY FLOW FURTHER
SOUTH IS DELAYING ITS ONSET. 88D RETURNS DEPICT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...AND AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES EXPECT
AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE NORTH OF THE BAY AREA FIRST...THEN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS FURTHER SOUTH...SO WILL WORD FOR SCATTERED EVENING POPS IN
ALL ZONES.

SHORT TERM(TON-SUN)...PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE BEST WAY TO GO THIS
CYCLE AS LATEST MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
WEAK SERN U.S TROUGHINESS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE REPLACED
BY A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE FROM THE ATLANTIC. ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ABOUT THE CENTRAL PENINSULA PROVIDING ALL OF
THE FA WITH A SE-SLY WIND FLOW WITH AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT
DEVELOPING ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS EACH AFTERNOON. WITH PWS PROGD TO
REMAIN IN THE 1.7-2 RANGE...A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED DIURNAL SEA/
LAKE BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INCREASING HEIGHTS WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED(MON-THURS)...UPPER RIDGE PROGD TO REMAIN OVER THE SERN U.S
AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

MARINE...SURFACE RIDGE POSITION WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A LIGHT SE-SLY
WIND FLOW OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS OVER
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH ONSHORE SEA BREEZE COMPONENT DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON. NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY CCF #S
BKV 073/093 072/093 2424
TPA 078/092 078/092 2424
GIF 075/093 075/094 2424
SRQ 077/091 077/091 2424
FMY 076/093 076/093 2424

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-252330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1057 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2002

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON SOME POSSIBLY
   STRONG...

GOOD DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SEA AND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THE AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATERS ON ROADWAYS AND
INTERSECTIONS.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE PRESENCE
OF DRY AIR AND COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH SOME HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF
THERE IS TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT
UNTIL THE STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

JCM

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)