Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2002

CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND 88D RETURNS DEPICT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL
PINELLAS COUNTY NORTH INTO CENTRAL PASCO COUNTY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST LAPS SOUNDING DATA DEPICTS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVERHEAD AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND RATHER COLD
50H TEMPS  -9C. FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES COMBINED WITH SEA/
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND NWWD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DVLPMT
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

SHORT TERM...(TON-SAT)...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT SO A BLEND WILL BE USED. WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER THE
SERN U.S. AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS UPPER HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MODELS...UPPER
RIDGING NOT AS PRONOUNCED AS EARLIER RUNS HAD DEPICTED...SO OVERALL
SUPPRESSION FROM IT SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER. IN ADDITION MODELS NOW
KEEP PWS ABOUT THE SAME (BETWEEN 1.7-2) THROUGH SATURDAY AND WITH
THE SFC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ABOUT THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED (30-40% POPS) SEA BREEZE DRIVEN DIURNAL
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV/FWC/MET
TEMPS ARE CLOSE...SO WILL NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEM.

EXTENDED(SUN-WED)...LATEST AVN SHOWS UPPER RIDGING BECOMING A BIT
MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE FA WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PWS. THIS
MAY LEAD TO LOWER POP CHANCES...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL OPT TO
KEEP SCATTERED POP WORDING IN PLACE UNTIL LATE MODEL RUNS CAN BE
REVIEWED. IN ADDITION WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS...TEMPS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WITH READING CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS.

MARINE...SFC RIDGE AXIS MEANDERING ABOUT THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR SE-SLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN LEGS AND S-SWLY FLOW
FURTHER TO THE NORTH. OTHER THAN HIGHER WIND/SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF
TSTMS...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

PRELIMINARY CCF #S
BKV 072/093 072/092 3424
TPA 077/091 077/090 3424
GIF 075/093 075/093 3524
SRQ 075/090 075/090 3424
FMY 074/092 075/092 3424

.TBW...NONE.

MCMICHAEL

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-242330-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1128 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2002

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOME POSSIBLY STRONG...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA AND LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS WILL HELP TO FIRE OFF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS BY MID
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS FIRING OFF ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW MOVING...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATERS ON
ROADWAYS AND INTERSECTIONS.

IN ADDITION TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. DRY AIR AND
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW A
FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

RESIDENTS AND MARINERS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SHOULD
BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. REMEMBER...WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS
TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE
STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES.

MCMICHAEL