Alert archive / Florida / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

June 28, 2002Polk County, Florida

NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 28, 2002, 4:42 PM EDT for Polk County, Florida. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 28, 2002, 4:42 PM EDT (20:42 UTC)
Expired: Jun 28, 2002, 5:15 PM EDT
In force: 33 min
Issued by: NWS Tampa Bay, FL
Area: Whole counties

County Polk County, FL

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 74 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 908 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -34 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 875 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -13 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KTBW 282042
SVRTBW
FLC105-282115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
441 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH EASTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT.

* AT 441 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...OVER
  NORTHEAST POLK COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT...
  LOUGHMAN AND I-4.

WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...MAINLY TO
TREES AND POWER LINES. POORLY ANCHORED ROOFS...MOBILE HOMES...AND
SHEDS ARE ALSO AT RISK.

$$

LAT...LON 2813 8155 2825 8151 2834 8166 2833 8184
          2809 8177

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tampa Bay, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 28, 1:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 28, 1:55 PM EDT, 2 hours 47 minutes before

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
155 PM EDT FRI JUN 28 2002

CURRENTLY...WEST COAST SEA BREEZE EVEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP THAN
YESTERDAY...LIKELY DUE TO TEMPS NOT BEING HOT ENOUGH YET...PLUS A
VERY LIGHT SYNOPTIC EAST FLOW. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS DEVELOPING MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR. SAT LOOP SHOWING A WEAK MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING FROM THE SE GULF. COULD BE ON SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THIS
FEATURE...WHICH IS SLOWING CU/CONVECTION THIS AFTN.

--SHORT TERM--
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH MON. DEEP LAYER
RIDGE HANGS ON OVER THE FL PENIN THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND/OR MOVE TOWARD S FL AS A WEAK UPPER TROF TRIES TO BACK SW
DOWN THE U.S. EAST COAST. LATEST AVN RUN APPEARS A LITTLE LESS
AGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY...AND WONDER IF IT WILL
BACK OFF ENTIRELY IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. AVN ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SLIGHT DRYING TREND WITH PWS FALLING TO 1.5 TO 1.8 BY SUN...THEN BACK
TO AROUND 1.9+ BEYOND. ETA KEEPS PWS 1.8 TO 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE FOR NOW. THUS...WILL STICK WITH
AROUND 50% POPS FOR AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY LIGHT EASTERLY
FLOW WITH AFTN SEA BREEZES THROUGH AT LEAST SUN. BY MON...AVN
DEVELOPS SYNOPTIC SW LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WOULD PUSH BETTER CHANCES
FOR AFTN CONVECTION INLAND...ESPEC N 2/3 OF FA.

--EXTENDED--
AVN/MRF MAINTAINS LOW LEVEL WSW FLOW WITH MODERATE TO HIGH DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE. SCT/CLIMO POPS THROUGH 4TH OF JULY AND FRI...WITH
TIMING TOWARD MORNING/EARLY AFTN COASTAL AREAS...AFTN INLAND. MINS
WILL BE WARMER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW.

--MARINE--
NO HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIP COVERAGE HAS BEEN LIGHT
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE. TIMING WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
AS WSW FLOW DEVELOPS MON THROUGH WED.

PRELIM #S:
BKV 070/091 070/090 3535
TPA 075/090 075/090 3535
GIF 073/091 074/091 4545
SRQ 073/090 073/090 3535
FMY 073/090 073/090 4545=

TBW...NONE.

MORALES

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tampa Bay, FL issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 28, 4:33 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		57 min
Jun 28, 5:00 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		30 min
Jun 28, 5:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Pasco	27 min
Jun 28, 5:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TBW	Pinellas	42 min
Jun 28, 5:13 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		62 min
Jun 28, 5:48 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		57 min
Jun 28, 6:42 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		48 min
Jun 28, 7:05 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		55 min
Jun 28, 7:58 PM EDT	Special Marine Warning	TBW		62 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Florida, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.