Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
130 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2002

THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS PESKY UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE GULF AND FL
PENINSULA.  DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LODGED OVER THE REGION...
PROVIDING THE FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.  STILL NO SIGN OF A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...
THOUGH THE PROGS BEYOND DAY 7 TRY TO REBUILD RIDGE A BIT.

MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BIG PICTURE IN THE
SHORT TERM.  THE AVN WAS FIRST TO LATCH ONTO THE IDEA OF A SW
DRIFTING/DEVELOPING SYSTEM...EVOLVING FROM A WEAKNESS OFF THE GA
COAST TO A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED NEAR THE AL/MS BORDER BY 60H.  AS
USUAL...THE DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE DETAILS.  THE NGM IS QUITE BOLD
WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE N 1/2 OF THE
CWFA...A RESULT OF OVERANALYZING THE ACTIVITY OFF THE E COAST
EARLIER TODAY.

THE AVN IS SIMILAR...AS NOTED BY ITS 90/100 PCT RAIN CHANCE
CENTRAL/N OVERNIGHT.  THE AVN ALSO TAKES THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
WRAPS IT INTO THE CUTOFF...INDUCING A DRY PUNCH TOWARD THE CWFA BY
SAT.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE BIG PICTURE...PREFER THE MODERATE ETA
FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SHORT TERM:
SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS UNLEASHING AS I WRITE.  MORE IMPORTANTLY...EXPECT
THE ACTIVITY TO PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS DYNAMICS GET
INVOLVED.  250 MB SPEED MAX DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF LATER
TODAY...AND AS IT SLIDES E MUCH OF THE AREA IS UNDER GOOD LEFT EXIT
REGION DIVERGENCE.  COMBINE THAT WITH DEEPENING SE FLOW AND COPIOUS
MOISTURE AND WE SHOULD BE SET FOR OCNL RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSTMS.

SE FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FRI...AND AS UPPER LOW TAKES
SHAPE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WELL BE SQUARELY IN THE DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME.  EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS ONCE AGAIN...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTN.  AS UPPER LOW RECEDES W FRI NIGHT/SAT...WE MAY BRIEFLY GO
BACK INTO AN AFTN/EVE PATTERN.  HOWEVER...WITH SFC-700 MB FLOW
NEARLY DUE S AND PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND IM NOT ABOUT
TO GET CUTE WITH TIMING.  SAT AFTN SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF ACTIVITY
ONCE AGAIN...WITH PERHAPS A FEW MORE TSTMS AS A TAD MORE HEATING
POPS UP.

EXTENDED:
AVN/MRF TAKE UPPER LOW AND MEANDER IT ACROSS LA/AR/MS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  HOWEVER...THIS PUTS REGION UNDER CONTINUED DEEP SSE FLOW
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...AND WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY EXPECT AT
LEAST SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO POP UP AT ANY TIME.  THOUGH AFTN/EVE
PERIOD LOOKS MOST PROMISING...WILL BROAD BRUSH WITH NO TIMING FOR
NOW.  TEMPS STILL A TAD BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE ATTENDANT CLOUD
COVER.

MARINE:
COULD GET TRICKY IF SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN LINE WITH THE AVN...
REQUIRING SCEC (OR MORE).  FOR NOW...BELIEVE THE INVERTED TROUGH IDEA
IS BEST AND WILL LEAVE WINDS JUST UNDER CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WX:
NO PROBLEMS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
BKV 070/086 070/088 6746
TPA 072/086 072/088 6746
GIF 071/086 071/088 6746
SRQ 072/086 072/088 6746
FMY 072/088 072/089 6746

.TBW...NONE.

88/GOLDSMITH

FLZ042-048>052-055-060-202300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
330 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2002

...TORRENTIAL RAINS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE...

THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...WILL
MOVE INTO THE TAMPA BAY AND SARASOTA BRADENTON METRO AREAS BETWEEN
415 AND 5 PM.

TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.  IN
ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS LIKELY.

MOTORISTS TRAVELING EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO
RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...INCLUDING HIGH STANDING WATER
AND MINOR STREET FLOODING.  OTHERS SHOULD REFRAIN FROM USING
ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT UNTIL THE STORMS TAPER OFF LATER THIS EVENING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORIES...LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW (LOWER CASE)

BSG