Tornado Warning 1, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
135 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2002

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE CLOUDS HAVE
PROGRESSED EASTWARD SLOWLY THIS MORNING...AND NEAREST SHOWERS ARE
STILL A COUPLE OF COUNTIES AWAY TO THE NORTH OF MY AL COUNTIES. THE
COLD FRONT IS DRAPED ALONG THE E TX COAST THEN EXTENDS TOWARD THE TN
VLY. CURRENTLY IN MY CWA NO VIS RESTRICTIONS AND NO CEILINGS BELOW
250. STILL SLY FLOW BUT NO LONGER LIGHT...WITH MOST SITES REPORTING
WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KTS. AREA TEMPS RANGE 68-65 WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ONE CONCERN IS THAT WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH HEATING
TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
TIMING WILL BE OFF...THE MOISTURE AND THE DYNAMICS WILL LAG THE MAX
HEATING JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

DISCUSSION:  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH TWO
MAJOR SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...RESULTING IN NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CWA BY 60 HR. MODEL
SURFACE FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR WITH AVN PUSHING THE LEADING COLD
FRONT THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...ABOUT 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ETA/NGM. BEST UPPER DYNAMICS WILL STAY WELL TO OUR NORTH. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR BUILDING SOUTH TO FL STATE LINE BRIEFLY ON SUNDAY BEFORE
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...WITH MORE RAIN
CHANCES WITH A SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SLIDE EASTWARD...
ALLOWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE RETURN AND MORE RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
TO START THE EXTENDED. CONTINUE TO PREFER THE FASTER AVN MODEL. THE
ETA REALLY SEEMS TO OVER DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST ON MONDAY AND OVERDO THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAPID
TRANSIT OF SYSTEM AND WEAKER DYNAMICS OVER CWA SHOULD HOLD RAINFALL
ACCUMS GENERALLY TO A QUARTER INCH OR LESS...WITH ISOLATED
THREE-QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. MODEL TEMP GUIDANCE IS
CLOSE...WILL BLEND. IN GENERAL MIN TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND
MAX TEMPS NEAR NORMAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL KEEP 6 ZONE
GROUPINGS TO ACCOMMODATE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS.

MARINE: OFFSHORE BUOYS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN WATERS...ARE STARTING TO INCREASE AS THE FRONT PLODS
EASTWARD. LATEST 42039 REPORT WAS 15 TO 20 WITH 3.6 FT SEAS. EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT BY MORNING. WILL NEED TO EXPAND SCA TO EASTERN
WATERS TONIGHT.

EXTENDED: WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF SATURATES THE
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT...
COOLER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
AND INCREASED WINDS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH 47 63 50 65 5035
PFN 48 60 52 63 4035
DHN 43 57 48 61 4023
ABY 43 60 48 60 5024
VLD 47 62 48 64 5025

.TLH...
.AL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.
.FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PANHANDLE WATERS.

AFD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
451 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2002

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0415 PM    NORTHERN PORTION          AL   WIND DAMAGE
01/19/02   COFFEE                         A FEW TREES DOWN ON CR
                                          323 AND 606, AS WELL AS
                                          HWY 125. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.